Week 8 Roundup: 2nd Month Analysis Blowout!

It's that time again and since these posts are generally the longest posts of the blog let's get right into it 

 

Stat Corrections
- There were no stat corrections this week

Transactions

-There were no transactions this week

Standings as of December 12th, 2022

 

1. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 4050 (+370) 

2. Pgastan FC - 3985 (+460)  

3. Gamblor - 3920 (+405)

4. Baltimore Hitsquad - 3815 (+440)

5. GG Foulin' - 3710 (+350)  

6. Arlington Assaulters - 3680  (+485) 

7. F'N FLOPPERS - 3075 (+485)  

8. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 2920 (+315)

9. Ohsnappers!!! - 2725 (+260)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

 

Ohsnappers!!! had a poor week of 260 points and stays in 9th place. Rodman'sWeddingDress had an average week of 315 points and falls to 8th place. F'N FLOPPERS had a great week of 485 points and moves up to 7th place. Arlington Assaulters had a great week of 485 points and stays in 2nd place. GG Foulin' had an average week of 350 points and stays in 5th place. 

 

Baltimore Hitsquad had a great week of 440 points and stays in 4th place. Gamblor had a great week of 405 points and stays in 3rd place. Pgastan FC had a great week of 460 points and stays in 2nd place. Finally, Oww Ming's Flagrants had an average week of 370 points and stays in 1st place. 

 

The only movement this week was F'N FLOPPERS and Rodman'sWeddingDress swapping positions from 7th and 8th. Other than that, as detailed above the standings are the same as less week. 

 

Average Points Per Game - Avg PPG (Last Month Avg PPG)

 

1. Oww Ming's Flagrants (178 Games) -  22.75 (23.86)

2. Pgastan FC (177 Games) - 22.51 (22.18) 

3. Gamblor (169 Games) -  23.20 (20.52)

4. Baltimore Hitsquad (174 Games) - 21.93 (24.07) 

5. GG Foulin' (184 Games) - 20.16 (21.52)

6. Arlington Assaulters (175 Games) - 21.03 (19.54) 

7. F'N FLOPPERS (161 Games) - 19.10 (19.31) 

8. Rodman'sWeddingDress (167 Games) - 17.49 (17.50)

9. Ohsnappers!!! (148 Games) -  18.41 (17.91)

League Average (170 Games) - 20.73 (20.69) 

So by this metric, Gamblor should be in 1st place, followed by Oww Ming in 2nd, PFC in 3rd and Baltimore in 4th. Arlington Assaulters is under performing slightly as they should be in 5th place. GG Foulin' should be in 6th place and they are the first Foul Club to be fouling under league average. The big surprise here is Rodman'sWeddingDress underperforming by a lot as they should be in 9th place. Of course, Ohsnappers!!! has so few games played they find themselves in last place.

Projected Final Standings:
 
Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression) [Previous Month's LR]  

 

1. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 12,655 (13,030) [13,385]

2. Pgastan FC - 12,455 (12,320) [12,100] 

3. Gamblor - 12,250 (11,895) [11,180]  

4. Baltimore Hitsquad - 11,920 (12,175) [11,935] 

5. GG Foulin' - 11,595 (11,855) [12,060]

6. Arlington Assaulters - 11,500 (11,325) [10,565]

7. F'N FLOPPERS -  9,610 (9,450) [9,520] 

8. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 9,125 (9,280) [9,220]

9. Ohsnappers!!! - 8,515 (8,555) [8,300]

 

So by this metric, Oww Ming's Flagrants is still projected to finish in 1st, with PFC in 2nd. The first change is that Baltimore Hitsquad is projected to finish 3rd above Gamblor by linear regression method. Other than that, all foul clubs seem to be meeting expectations by this metric. There are still some rather large discrepancies between traditional method and linear regression but it's starting to settle down as opposed to the week 4 post. 

 

Points Graph:

 

 

Tier 4: F'N FLOPPERS, Rodman'sWeddingDress, Ohsnappers!!!

Tier 3: Baltimore Hitsquad, GG Foulin', Arlington Assaulters

Tier 2: Pgastan FC, Gamblor

Tier 1: Oww Ming's Flagrants

 

The tiers are a little hard to split up since most foul clubs are separated by the adjacent foul clubs by about 100. GG Foulin' and AA and PFC and Gamblor are the exceptions to that. There is clearly a bottom tier with F'N, Rodman, and Ohsnappers!!!. After that the teams are generally bunched up with 6th place Arlington Assaulters only 370 points back from 1st. You can clearly see that in the graph, that while there is minor separation between top 6 foul clubs, all foul clubs are well in the hunt for the NFA title this season.  

 

Well that's it for now.

 

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

 

FM 

 

 

Week 7 Roundup: They Call Him Gamblor Edition

So, I rarely profile a foul club in these openings (they're usually just nonsensical introductions or some kind of analysis) but Gamblor had huge week that's worth mentioning. You all saw my post from a few days ago when Gamblor put up 295 on 11-30-22 but he followed that up with 295 points on 12-3-22. That was thanks to a flagrant 2 ejection for Gobert and a techy from Anthony Edwards. Gamblor scored a whopping 860 points this past week and moves up to 3rd all the way from 6th place. Incredible! Now, let's get to this week's post. 

 Stat Corrections
- There were no stat corrections this week

Transactions

- GG Foulin' added Zach Collins on December 3rd

- GG Foulin' added Cole Anthony and dropped Jaylen Brown on December 3rd

- Pgastan FC added Jevon Carter and dropped Jalen Suggs on December 4th

- Pgastan FC added Nic Claxton and dropped Jevon Carter on December 4th

- Arlington Assaulters added Spencer Dinwiddie on December 4th 

Standings as of December 5th, 2022

 

1. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 3680 (+460) 

2. Pgastan FC - 3525 (+680)  

3. Gamblor - 3515 (+860)

4. Baltimore Hitsquad - 3375 (+355)

5. GG Foulin' - 3360 (+510)  

6. Arlington Assaulters - 3195  (+400)

7. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 2605 (+275)

8. F'N FLOPPERS - 2590 (+290) 

9. Ohsnappers!!! - 2465 (+410)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

 

Ohsnappers!!! had a great week of 410 points but stays in last place. F'N FLOPPERS had a poor week of 290 points and stays in 8th place. Rodman'sWeddingDress had a poor week of 275 points and stays in 7th place. Arlington Assaulters had a great week of 400 points but falls to 6th place from 5th. GG Foulin' had an excellent week of 510 points but surprisingly falls from 3rd to 5th.  

Baltimore Hitsquad had an average week of 355 points but falls from 2nd to 4th. As mentioned above, Gamblor had an amazing week of 860 points and moves up to 3rd place from 6th. Pgastan FC had an amazing week of 680 points and moves up to 2nd place from 4th. Finally, Oww Ming's Flagrants had a great week of 460 points and stays in 1st place. 

Points Graph:

 

 

Tier 4: Rodman'sWeddingDress, F'N FLOPPERS, Ohsnappers!!!

Tier 3: Arlington Assaulters

Tier 2: Baltimore Hitsquad, GG Foulin'

Tier 1: Oww Ming's Flagrants, Pgastan FC, Gamblor

 

After some big weeks by Gamblor and Pgastan FC, the tiers have started to shake out a little bit. We clearly have a bottom tier now as Rodman and F'N have actually fallen back to join Ohsnappers!!! at the bottom. Arlington Assaulters is kind of in NFA purgatory as they could fall to the bottom tier or just as easily move up to next tier. Baltimore and GG could easily be in tier 1 but it's clear in the graph above that they are not quite in that tier. We shall see what the coming weeks will do to shake up these tiers even more.

 

Well that's it for now.

 

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

 

FM

 

 

Crazy Night in the NFA

The NFA ended November with a crazy night in which 2 Foul Clubs, Pgastan FC and Gamblor, both scored over 300 points. In my quick research of this blog I found only one other instance of 2 teams scoring over 300 points on the same day. That was February 12, 2020 where Pgastan FC scored a whopping 495 points and Ohsnappers!!! scored 360.

Here's the break down of those 2 foul clubs on their big night:

Pgastan FC on 11-30-2022

Kevin Porter Jr. - 25 Points (5-0-0-0-0)

Dillon Brooks - 195 Points (3-0-2-1-0)

DeAndre Hunter - 5 Points (1-0-0-0-0)

Kristaps Porzingis - 50 Points (2-0-1-0-0)

DeAndre Ayton - 60 Points (4-0-1-0-0)

Jusuf Nurkic - 15 Points (3-0-0-0-0)

Franz Wagner - 10 Points (2-0-0-0-0)

 

Total - 360 Points (20-0-4-1-0)

 

DeAndre Hunter left the game early after aggravating an earlier injury so PFC could have had a few more points. 

 

Gamblor  on 11-30-2022

 

Fred VanVleet - 190 Points (2-0-2-1-0)

Kelly Oubre Jr. - No Game

Anthony Edwards - 60 Points (4-0-1-0-0)

Draymond Green - No Game

Rudy Gobert - 60 Points (4-0-1-0-0)

Anthony Davis - 15 Points (3-0-0-0-0)

Larry Nance Jr. - 25 Points (5-0-0-0-0)

 

Total - 350 Points (18-0-4-1-0)

 

As you can see, Gamblor scored  350 points with only 5 active players. The craziest thing about last night for his foul club was his bench though. He had another 245 points there including another ejection. 

Gamblor's Bench on 11-30-2022

Dejounte Murray - 45 Points (1-0-1-0-0)

Terence Davis - 50 Points (2-0-1-0-0)

Ja Morant - 150 Points (2-0-1-1-0)

Total Bench for Gamblor - 245 Points (5-0-3-1-0)

Gamblor could have truly had a historic night, shattering Pgastan FC's 495 points mentioned above with an optimal lineup of:

Fred VanVleet - 190 Points (2-0-2-1-0)

Terence Davis - 50 Points (2-0-1-0-0)

Anthony Edwards - 60 Points (4-0-1-0-0)

Larry Nance Jr. - 25 Points (5-0-0-0-0)

Rudy Gobert - 60 Points (4-0-1-0-0)

Ja Morant - 150 Points (2-0-1-1-0)

Dejounte Murray - 45 Points (1-0-1-0-0)

 

Total Optimal Lineup: 580 Points (20-0-7-2-0)

 

Of course, who knows what Gamblor or any other Foul Club GM would have started this week (it's rare to star 2 PGs in a given week but it can happen). But it's fun to see what an optimal lineup would have been.

 

Pgastan FC goes from 4th place to 2nd place with their big night and Gamblor goes from 6th to 3rd place.

It should be noted that 2 other Foul Clubs scored over 100 points yesterday with Oww Ming's Flagrants scoring 130 (18-0-1-0-0) and Ohsnappers!!! scoring 155 (19-1-0-0-0)