Week 8 Roundup: 2nd Month Analysis Blowout!

Well, pretty big post for today as it is our 8 week analysis blowout so I won't write much of an introduction. I am planning on doing a similar format to the first analysis blowout. I am going to add a linear regression model to the projected points section along with the back of the envelope projections I have been doing. I have also added a league average rating (first debuted in last week's points graph) to a few other things as well.

So, without further ado, let's get to it!


Stat Corrections:
- There were no stat corrections this week

Transactions:
- GG Foulin' added D'Angelo Russell on December 15th
- Pgastan FC added Evan Fournier and dropped DeAndre Jordan on December 15th
- Pgastan FC added Hassan Whiteside and dropped Jaxson Hayes on December 15th
- Rodman'sWeddingDress added Dario Saric and dropped Dewayne Dedmon on December 15th

Pgastan FC has finally cut ties with DeAndre Jordan. The player he picked instead of Wendell Carter Jr. in the 4th round. Had he picked WCJ he would most likely be running away with the league. 

Standings as of December 16th, 2019:

1. GG Foulin' - 4960  (+740)
2. Pgastan FC - 4540 (+415)
3. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 3880 (+445)
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 3705 (+330)
5. Arlington Assaulters - 3465 (+355)
6. Gamblor - 3380 (+515)
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 3255 (+330)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad -  2935 (+295)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 1970 (+215)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

League Average for points as of Week 8 is 3565 and average score of 410 points.

F'N FLOPPERS is still in last place and has yet to crack the 2000 point mark. Baltimore Hitsquad stays in 8th place after only putting up 295 points and is just shy of the 3000 point plateau. Ohsnappers!!! had an average week of 330 points and falls to 7th place. Gamblor had an excellent week of 515 points and makes the jump to 6th place. Arlington Assaulters had an average week of 355 points and stays in 5th place.

Oww Ming's Flagrants had an average week of 330 points and stays in 4th place. Rodman'sWeddingDress put up 445 points and stays in 3rd place. Pgastan FC had a great week of 415 points but remains in 2nd place. Finally, GG Foulin' had an amazing week of 740 points and extends his league lead even further.

Average Points Per Game:
1. GG Foulin'  (178 Games) - 27.87
2. Pgastan FC  (181 Games) - 25.08
3. Rodman'sWeddingDress (168 Games) - 23.10
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants (177 Games) - 20.93
5. Arlington Assaulters (166 Games) - 20.87
6. Gamblor (160 Games) - 21.13
7. Ohsnappers!!! (178 Games) - 18.29
8. Baltimore Hitsquad (168 Games) -  17.47
9. F'N FLOPPERS (169 Games)- 11.66

League Average (172 Games) - 20.71

If you remember the last post, Gamblor was the only team that was really out of place in terms of this metric and he still is when compared to the standings. Again, you would think the average points per game would be in descending order from first to last place. It generally is except that Gamblor still falls into 4th place by this metric when in reality he is only in 6th. He's still pretty far behind 4th place, 325 points to be exact, which is in fact further away from 4th then he was in week 4. Other than that this metric pretty much plays out as you expect it. So again, if Gamblor can add to his games played he could potentially move up. The tricky part is to gain those games on the other teams.

Projected Final Standings: Going to slightly alter what I did in week 4 as after consulting with Baltimore Hitsquad's analytics department, I am adding linear regression points as well. I will keep the back of the envelope calculation (traditional method) followed by linear regression in parentheses.

Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression) 

1. GG Foulin' - 15,765  (15,720)
2. Pgastan FC - 14,430 (14,670)
3. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 12,330 (12,680)
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 11,775 (11,885)
5. Arlington Assaulters - 11,015 (10,820)
6. Gamblor - 10,745 (10,555)
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 10,345 (10,365)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad -  9,330 (9,590)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 6,260 (6,365)

A few things of note here. First, GG Foulin' and Pgastan FC are still on pace to break Rodman'sWeddingDress' all time record of 13,470. Second, F'N Floppers is on pace to break the all-time low set by Hoopin' Sabercats at 6,670. Finally, if these projections hold, this will be the most number of teams to score in the 5-digits since the league expanded to 9 teams. Only Baltimore Hitsquad and F'N FLOPPERS are not projected to make the 10,000 point mark. The most we have had is 5 teams, set last year. We have had all but 2 teams crack the 10,000 point mark twice but that was when we only had 7 teams. This really just proves that scouting in the NFA has gotten a lot better.

Points Graph:
 
The graph let's us visualize the tiers the league so let's see what those are.

Tier 4: F'N FLOPPERS
Tier 3: Baltimore Hitsquad, Ohsnappers!!!, Gamblor, Arlington Assaulters
Tier 2: Oww Ming's Flagrants and Rodman'sWeddingDress
Tier 1: Pgastan FC and GG Foulin'

F'N FLOPPERS is clearly in a tier by himself in last a place. You could potentially argue that Tier 3 and 2 could be 1 tier but that may be because the league average line splits the difference, so I think the 2 separate tiers are appropriate. Finally, Pgastan FC and GG Foulin' are clearly in a tier by themselves though GG Foulin' could separate himself from Pgastan FC and create his own tier on top.

Well that's it for now.

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM

Week 7 Roundup: Team Strength Edition

I have been working on the metrics for next week's post, especially after meeting with the staff from Baltimore Hitsquad over the weekend and was almost tempted to write that post this week but I decided to hold off. That decision was made easier when I finally came up with an idea for this week. One thing I do in all my fantasy leagues is to sort by "Rank" (or fantasy points) and see how many of the top 25, 10, or 5 players are on each team to gauge how strong the teams are. I was doing that today and was like "That's a great idea for a post. Even a few times during the season too." One example I remember fondly is a fantasy hockey team I had in which I finished the season with the 1st, 2nd, and 5th best players in the game that year.I won the league by the way.

So here's how I am going to do this:

Team Name - Number of Foulers in top 25 (specific rank of those players)

GG Foulin' - 4 (2nd, 4th, 7th, 9th)
Pgastan FC - 6 (1st, 11th, 13th, 15th, 17th, 24th)
Rodman'sWeddingDress - 5 (3rd, 12th, 16th, 18th, 21st)
Oww Ming's Flagrants - 3 (6th, 8th, 14th)
Arlington Assaulters - 2 (5th and 10th)
Ohsnappers!!! - 2 (19th and 25th)
Gamblor - 1 (23rd)
Baltimore Hitsquad - 2 (20th and 22nd)
F'N FLOPPERS - 0

Keep in mind that rosters include 10 players (7 starters and 3 bench players), but there's not much of a surprise here. It is interesting that GG Foulin' has 4 top 25 players in fact all 4 are in the top 10. Pgastan FC has the number 1 player and then 5 more between 11th and 24th. Finally, Rodman'sWeddingDress has 5 players in the top 25. It should be no surprise that the top 3 teams in the standings have the most top 25 players while the worst team has 0.

Anyway, I might do this again later in the season to see where we stand but for now, let's get into this week's post, shall we?

Stat Corrections:
- Marcus Morris had a techy given to him retroactive to October 26th. Arlington Assaulters had him active that week so he gained 40 points.
- Marcus Morris had a techy given to him retroactive to October 28th. Arlington Assaulters had him active that week so he gained 40 points.
- Marcus Morris had a techy given to him retroactive to November 6th. Arlington Assaulters had him active that week so he gained 40 points.
- Julius Randle had a techy given to him retroactive to November 6th. Pgastan FC had him active that week so he gained 40 points.

Yahoo! finally added the techy for Julius Randle after about a month. After writing these posts for a few years now we usually get a few  stat correction bonanzas in which a bunch of techies are taken away or given. My guess is that this is the NBA reviewing conduct retroactively and then it gets to the NFA late. But since the NFA is a marathon and not a sprint, as long as it comes before the last week it doesn't matter.

Transactions:
- Baltimore Hitsquad added Royce O'Neale and dropped Thaddeus Young on December 3rd
- Baltimore Hitsquad added Ivica Zubac and dropped Taj Gibson on December 3rd
- Arlington Assaulters dropped D'Angelo Russell on December 7th
- GG Foulin' dropped Willie Cauley-Stein on December 8th

Standings as of December 9th, 2019:

1. GG Foulin' - 4220  (+495)
2. Pgastan FC - 4125 (+685)
3. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 3435 (+445)
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 3375 (+415)
5. Arlington Assaulters - 3110 (+515)
6. Ohsnappers!!! - 2880 (+435)
7. Gamblor - 2865 (+405)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad - 2640 (+315)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 1755 (+210)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

F'N FLOPPERS remains in last place after only putting up 210 points. Baltimore Hitsquad stays in 8th place after 315 points, which constitutes an average week. Gamblor falls one spot to 7th after a great week of 405 points because Ohsnappers!!! just edged him in his great week of 435 points to pass him. Rounding out the top 5, Arlington Assaulters had an excellent week of 515 points but remains in 5th place.

Now on to the top 4! Oww Ming's Flagrants stays in 4th place after 415 points. Rodman'sWeddingDress had a great week of 445 points and remains in 3rd place. Pgastan FC had an amazing week of 685 points but remains in 2nd place but he closes the gap to under 100 points on GG Foulin' who had a great week of 495 points and remains atop the standings.

With Pgastan FC and GG Foulin' cracking the 4000-point barrier this week it got me thinking if they are ahead of the pace from season's past. I have been doing these weekly points since 2014-15 and it turns out they are slightly ahead of the pace as the first team to crack the 4000-point mark in week 8 or 9. We are in week 7.

Points Graph: Not sure why I didn't think of this before but I added a line for league average in the points graph.



Tier 5: F'N FLOPPERS
Tier 4: Baltimore Hitsquad, Gamblor, Ohsnappers!!!
Tier 3: Arlington Assaulters
Tier 2: Oww Ming's Flagrants and Rodman'sWeddingDress
Tier 1: Pgastan FC and GG Foulin'

Decided to split Arlington Assaulters off into his own tier as he is just under 500 points ahead of Baltimore Hitsquad so it didn't feel right for him to be in tier 4. We are developing 2 duels (one for 1st and one for 3rd). Again, tiers will change throughout the season so this could be different next week.

Well that's it for now.

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM

Week 6 Roundup:Sustainability Edition

You may wonder what the title of this post means, well you're in luck as I am about to explain it! In updating my spreadsheet that feeds the stats for the analysis in these posts this morning and updating the projected final points section, I noticed that GG Foulin' and Pgastan FC are still on pace to crush Rodman'sWeddingDress' record total of 13,470. While I won't do a full analysis post this week (that will come in 2 weeks at the 8 week mark), I will briefly analyze GG Foulin' and PFC.

Week 6 marks just under a quarter of the season in terms of percentage, 23.5% of the season has been completed. With that in mind, there is still 77.5% to play, it is still pretty remarkable the pace of our top 2 Foul Clubs.

Projected Final Points:
GG Foulin' - 15,785
Pgastan FC - 14,580
Rodman'sWeddingDress - 12,670

I guess I lied, I threw in Rodman'sWeddingDress as well because he was on pace to break his record just 2 weeks ago but has fallen a bit behind now. Compared to the projections from 2 weeks ago, GG Foulin' as cooled off a little bit as his projections have come down just over 1,000 points from 16,750. Meanwhile, Pgastan FC sees his projected points pace actually go up about 100 from 14,460. Finally, Rodman'sWeddingDress sees his projected final points drop about 800 points from 13,415. Though, that point total would be good to win any league except the first 2 season (2009-10 and 2010-11 and not counting the lockout season), so it's still pretty impressive.

So the question is, how long can GG Foulin' and Pgastan FC (and to a lesser extent Rodman'sWeddingDress) keep this record-breaking pace up? Only time will tell but we could be in for some history this season.

Let's get to this week's post now, shall we?

Stat Corrections:
- There were no stat corrections this week

Transactions:
- Pgastan FC added Jaxson Hayes and dropped Tobias Harris on November 28th
- F'N FLOPPERS added Ryan Arcidiacono and dropped Jevon Carter on December 1st
- F'N FLOPPERS added Tobias Harris and dropped Rodney Hood on December 1st
- Pgastan FC added Davis Bertans and dropped Royce O'Neale on December 1st


Standings as of December 2nd, 2019:

1. GG Foulin' - 3725 (+615)
2. Pgastan FC - 3440 (+640)
3. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 2990 (+375)
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 2960 (+615)
5. Arlington Assaulters - 2595 (+560)
6. Gamblor - 2460 (+485)
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 2445 (+355)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad - 2325 (+485)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 1545 (+305)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

Some interesting coincidences in this week's scores in that 2 pairs of teams scored the same points in 615 and 485. So starting from the bottom, as usual, F'N FLOPPERS still finds himself well behind the league in last place after only putting up 305 points. He remains the only team not to crack 2000 points. Baltimore Hisquad stays in 8th place but isn't too far behind 7th after scoring 485 points. Ohsnappers!!! falls from 5th to 7th after putting up 355 points but is only 5 points (1 personal foul) behind Gamblor who scored 485 points and moves up from 7th to 6th. Arlington Assaulters climbs one spot from 6th to 5th after an excellent week of 560 points.

Oww Ming's Flagrants had an amazing week of 615 points and stays in 4th. Rodman'sWeddingDress only managed 375 points and stays in 3rd but with Oww Ming's Flagrants right on his tail. Pgastan FC had the best week this week of 640 points but stays in 2nd place. He only managed to close the gap between him and GG Foulin' by 25 points as GG Foulin' scored 615 points and stays in 1st.

Points Graph:
 
The tiers seem of this league seem to be coming into the clear now even more so as the season progresses. F'N FLOPPERS is in tier 3. Then you get the cluster of Baltimore Hitsquad, Ohsnappers!!!, Gamblor, Arlington Assaulters, Oww Ming's Flagrants, and a new addition in Rodman'sWeddingDress in tier 2. Finally, you have Pgastan FC and GG Foulin' in tier 1.

Well that's it for now.

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM