Week 8 Roundup: 2nd Month Analysis Blowout!

Well, pretty big post for today as it is our 8 week analysis blowout so I won't write much of an introduction. I am planning on doing a similar format to the first analysis blowout. I am going to add a linear regression model to the projected points section along with the back of the envelope projections I have been doing. I have also added a league average rating (first debuted in last week's points graph) to a few other things as well.

So, without further ado, let's get to it!


Stat Corrections:
- There were no stat corrections this week

Transactions:
- GG Foulin' added D'Angelo Russell on December 15th
- Pgastan FC added Evan Fournier and dropped DeAndre Jordan on December 15th
- Pgastan FC added Hassan Whiteside and dropped Jaxson Hayes on December 15th
- Rodman'sWeddingDress added Dario Saric and dropped Dewayne Dedmon on December 15th

Pgastan FC has finally cut ties with DeAndre Jordan. The player he picked instead of Wendell Carter Jr. in the 4th round. Had he picked WCJ he would most likely be running away with the league. 

Standings as of December 16th, 2019:

1. GG Foulin' - 4960  (+740)
2. Pgastan FC - 4540 (+415)
3. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 3880 (+445)
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 3705 (+330)
5. Arlington Assaulters - 3465 (+355)
6. Gamblor - 3380 (+515)
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 3255 (+330)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad -  2935 (+295)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 1970 (+215)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

League Average for points as of Week 8 is 3565 and average score of 410 points.

F'N FLOPPERS is still in last place and has yet to crack the 2000 point mark. Baltimore Hitsquad stays in 8th place after only putting up 295 points and is just shy of the 3000 point plateau. Ohsnappers!!! had an average week of 330 points and falls to 7th place. Gamblor had an excellent week of 515 points and makes the jump to 6th place. Arlington Assaulters had an average week of 355 points and stays in 5th place.

Oww Ming's Flagrants had an average week of 330 points and stays in 4th place. Rodman'sWeddingDress put up 445 points and stays in 3rd place. Pgastan FC had a great week of 415 points but remains in 2nd place. Finally, GG Foulin' had an amazing week of 740 points and extends his league lead even further.

Average Points Per Game:
1. GG Foulin'  (178 Games) - 27.87
2. Pgastan FC  (181 Games) - 25.08
3. Rodman'sWeddingDress (168 Games) - 23.10
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants (177 Games) - 20.93
5. Arlington Assaulters (166 Games) - 20.87
6. Gamblor (160 Games) - 21.13
7. Ohsnappers!!! (178 Games) - 18.29
8. Baltimore Hitsquad (168 Games) -  17.47
9. F'N FLOPPERS (169 Games)- 11.66

League Average (172 Games) - 20.71

If you remember the last post, Gamblor was the only team that was really out of place in terms of this metric and he still is when compared to the standings. Again, you would think the average points per game would be in descending order from first to last place. It generally is except that Gamblor still falls into 4th place by this metric when in reality he is only in 6th. He's still pretty far behind 4th place, 325 points to be exact, which is in fact further away from 4th then he was in week 4. Other than that this metric pretty much plays out as you expect it. So again, if Gamblor can add to his games played he could potentially move up. The tricky part is to gain those games on the other teams.

Projected Final Standings: Going to slightly alter what I did in week 4 as after consulting with Baltimore Hitsquad's analytics department, I am adding linear regression points as well. I will keep the back of the envelope calculation (traditional method) followed by linear regression in parentheses.

Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression) 

1. GG Foulin' - 15,765  (15,720)
2. Pgastan FC - 14,430 (14,670)
3. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 12,330 (12,680)
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 11,775 (11,885)
5. Arlington Assaulters - 11,015 (10,820)
6. Gamblor - 10,745 (10,555)
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 10,345 (10,365)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad -  9,330 (9,590)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 6,260 (6,365)

A few things of note here. First, GG Foulin' and Pgastan FC are still on pace to break Rodman'sWeddingDress' all time record of 13,470. Second, F'N Floppers is on pace to break the all-time low set by Hoopin' Sabercats at 6,670. Finally, if these projections hold, this will be the most number of teams to score in the 5-digits since the league expanded to 9 teams. Only Baltimore Hitsquad and F'N FLOPPERS are not projected to make the 10,000 point mark. The most we have had is 5 teams, set last year. We have had all but 2 teams crack the 10,000 point mark twice but that was when we only had 7 teams. This really just proves that scouting in the NFA has gotten a lot better.

Points Graph:
 
The graph let's us visualize the tiers the league so let's see what those are.

Tier 4: F'N FLOPPERS
Tier 3: Baltimore Hitsquad, Ohsnappers!!!, Gamblor, Arlington Assaulters
Tier 2: Oww Ming's Flagrants and Rodman'sWeddingDress
Tier 1: Pgastan FC and GG Foulin'

F'N FLOPPERS is clearly in a tier by himself in last a place. You could potentially argue that Tier 3 and 2 could be 1 tier but that may be because the league average line splits the difference, so I think the 2 separate tiers are appropriate. Finally, Pgastan FC and GG Foulin' are clearly in a tier by themselves though GG Foulin' could separate himself from Pgastan FC and create his own tier on top.

Well that's it for now.

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM