Monday, February 7, 2022

Week 16 Roundup: 4th Month Analysis Blowout!

Wow, can you believe it? We're already 4 months into the NFA season and you know what that means! It's time for the 4th month analysis blowout. Being that this is a big post, let's get right to it.

Stat Corrections:
- There were no stat corrections this week
 
Transactions:
- Pgastan FC added Isaiah Hartenstein and dropped Cade Cunningham on February 5th
- Gamblor added Anthony Edwards and dropped Terance Mann on February 6th

No not Terence Mann from Field of Dreams, that gets me every time i see it. 
 
Standings as of February 7th, 2022:
 
1. GG Foulin' - 7650 (+425)
2. Pgastan FC - 7580 (+320)  
3. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 6745 (+440) 
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 6725 (+515)  
5. Arlington Assaulters - 6290 (+415)  
6. Gamblor - 6140 (+545) 
7. Baltimore Hitsquad - 6050 (+335)
8. Ohsnappers!!! - 5320 (+355)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 4865 (+270) 

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week
 
F'N FLOPPERS had a poor week scoring 270 points and stays in last place. Ohsnappers!!! had an average week of 355 points and stays in 8th place. Baltimore Hitsquad had an average week of 335 points and moves down to 7th place. Gamblor had an excellent week of 545 points and moves up to 6th place. Arlington Assaulters had a great week of 415 points and stays in 5th place.
 
Oww Ming's Flagrants had an excellent week of 515 points and stays in 4th place but is on the heels of Rodman'sWeddingDress who had a great week of 440 points and stays in 3rd, for now. Pgastan FC had an average week of 320 points and falls to 2nd place. GG Foulin' had a great week of 425 and moves up to 1st place. 

Average Points Per Game - Avg PPG (Last Month Avg PPG)
 
1. GG Foulin' (353 Games) - 21.67 (21.10)
2. Pgastan FC (366 Games) - 20.71 (21.81)  
3. Rodman'sWeddingDress (349 Games) - 19.33 (19.50) 
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants (332 Games) - 20.26 (19.66)
5. Arlington Assaulters (316 Games) - 19.91 (20.63)
6. Gamblor (315 Games) - 19.49 (18.38) 
7. Baltimore Hitsquad (311 Games) - 19.45 (19.18)
8. Ohsnappers!!! (315 Games) - 16.89 (16.17) 
9. F'N FLOPPERS (315 Games) -  15.44 (15.12) 

League Average (330 Games) -  19.24 (19.06) 

Teams that are fouling out of order are Oww Ming who should be in 3rd place by this metric, Arlington Assaulters who should be in 4th, Gamblor who should be in 5th, Baltimore Hitsquad should be in 6th, and Rodman'sWeddingDress who should be in 7th. Also, Baltimore Hitsquad has a little World War theme going from 19.18 to 19.45. So a fair amount of teams are fouling out of order, we shall see what happens in the last 2 months of the season.

Projected Final Standings:
 
Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression) [Previous Month's LR]  
 
1. GG Foulin' - 12,160 (12,215) [12.380] 
2. Pgastan FC - 12,045 (12,575) [12,860]  
3. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 10,720 (10,930) [11,160]
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 10,690 (10,110) [9,730] 
5. Arlington Assaulters - 9,995 (10,380) [10,690]
6. Gamblor - 9,760 (9,625) [9,905]
7. Baltimore Hitsquad - 9,615 (9,645) [9,610]
8. Ohsnappers!!! - 8,455 (8,365) [8,230] 
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 7,730 (7,745) [7,680]
 
By this metric, Pgastan FC is still projected to finish in 1st using the linear regression method. With GG Foulin' coming in 2nd and Rodman'sWeddingDress finishing for the bronze. Arlington Assaulters should finish in 4th with Oww Ming in 5th. Baltimore and Gamblor are also flipped according to linear regression. The bottom two are where their projections are. 

Points Graph:
 
 
Tier 5: F'N FLOPPERS
Tier 4: Ohsnappers!!!
Tier 3: Arlington Assaulters, Gamblor, Baltimore Hitsquad
Tier 2: Rodman'sWeddingDress, Oww Ming's Flagrants
Tier 1: GG Foulin', Pgastan FC
 
Pretty interesting tiers this time. F'N FLOPPERS and Ohsnappers!!! are clearly in their own tiers at the bottom. The other 3 tiers are fascinating in that the teams within them are so close to one another with tier 3 being the most spread out. Also, only the top 4 teams (tiers 1 and 2) are fouling above league average. 
 
Well that's it for now.
 
Keep Foulin' Y'all!
 
FM 

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