Week 13 Roundup: March Foulness Edition

It's that time of year again where all the Foul Club GMs are busy scouting out the potential next great foulers. There haven't been many performance fouls so far in the tourney but we'll keep scouting for the next great clutch fouler (As I was writing this post I saw Quinerly from Alabama get a techy). Hopefully, you all filled out your brackets and you'll get the Flagrant Four right. Now, let's get to this week's post.

Stat Corrections:

- There were no stat corrections this week

 

Transactions:

- Arlington Assaulters added Ja Morant and dropped Blake Griffin on March 17th

- Oww Ming's Flagrants added Moses Brown and dropped Michael Porter Jr. on March 17th

- GG Foulin' added Michael Carter-Williams and dropped Aron Baynes on March 21st

- GG Foulin' added Jakob Poeltl on March 21st

 

Standings as of March 22nd, 2021

 

1. GG Foulin' -  6035 (+505)   

2. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 5700 (+490)   

3. Pgastan FC - 5695 (+405) 

4. F'N FLOPPERS - 4580 (+335) 

5. Arlington Assaulters - 4505 (+480)  

6. Gamblor - 4430 (+470)

7. Baltimore Hitsquad - 4375 (+525)  

8. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 4300 (+365) 

9. Ohsnappers!!! - 2810 (+455)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

 

Ohsnappers!!! had one of their best weeks of the season putting up 455 points after making some roster changes but still finds themselves with last place all but assured. Rodman'sWeddingDress had an average week of 365 points and falls to 8th place. Baltimore Hitsquad had an excellent week of 525 points and moves up to 7th place. Gamblor had a great week of 470 points and stays in 6th place. Arlington Assautlres had a great week of 480 points and stays in 5th place. 

F'N FLOPPERS had an average week of 335 points and stays in 4th place. Pgastan FC had a great week of 405 points but falls to 3rd place. Oww Ming's Flagrants had a great week of 490 points and moves up to 2nd. GG Foulin' had an excellent week of 505 points and stays in 1st place. 

Points Graph:

 

Tier 4: Ohsnappers!!!

Tier 3: F'N FLOPPERS, Arlington Assaulters, Gamblor, Baltimore Hitsquad, Rodman'sWeddingDress

Tier 2: Oww Ming's Flagrants, Pgastan FC

Tier 1: GG Foulin'

We clearly have 4 tiers right now. And with the big week by Baltimore Hitsquad Tier 3 just got even more crowded, which is clearly visible in the above graph. The 5 teams in Tier 3 are only separated by 280 points. And still, only Tiers 1 and 2 are fouling above the league average. GG Foulin' appears to be pulling away now but Pgastan FC's lead looked insurmountable early on and they now find themselves in 3rd place.

Well that's it for now.

 

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

 

FM

Week 12 Roundup: 3rd Month Analysis Blowout!

Well it's week 12 so you know what that means! Another monthly analysis post! Since we have a long post ahead, I'm just going to get right to it now.

Stat Corrections:

- There were no stat corrections this week

 

Transactions:

- GG Foulin' added LaMelo Ball on March 13th

- Ohsnappers!!! added Kelly Olynyk and dropped Bobby Portis on March 14th

- Ohsnappers!!! added RJ Barrett and dropped Kawhi Leonard on March 14th

- Baltimore Hitsquad added Norman Powell and dropped Damion Lee on March 14th

 

Standings as of March 15th, 2021

 

1. GG Foulin' -  5530 (+320)   

2. Pgastan FC - 5290 (+330) 

3. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 5210 (+255)   

4. F'N FLOPPERS - 4245 (+415) 

5. Arlington Assaulters - 4025 (+215)  

6. Gamblor - 3960 (+110)

7. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 3935 (+160) 

8. Baltimore Hitsquad - 3850 (+320) 

9. Ohsnappers!!! - 2355 (+85)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

 

Again, this was a shortened week so keep that in mind even though we had some decent scores for some foul clubs. Ohsnappers!!!, however, did not have one of those decent weeks. In fact, they had a horrible week of 85 points and remains in last place. Baltimore Hitsquad had an average week of 320 points and stays in 8th place. Rodman'sWeddingDress had a horrible week of 160 points and stays in 7th place. 

 

Gamblor had a horrible week of 110 points and falls from 4th to 6th place. Arlington Assautlers had a poor week of 215 points but actually moves up to 5th place. Finally, for the middle three teams, F'N FLOPPERS had a great week of 415 points and moves from 5th to 4th place, thanks to a Kyle Lowry ejection. 

 

For the top 3 teams, Oww MIng's Flagrants had a poor week of 255 points and stays in 3rd place. Pgastan FC had an average week of 330 points (finally ending their performance foul drought) and stays in 2nd place. GG Foulin' had an average week of 320 points and stays in 1st place.

Average Points Per Game

 

1. GG Foulin' (266 Games) -20.79

2. Pgastan FC (250 Games) - 21.16

3. Oww Ming's Flagrants (247 Games) -21.09

4. F'N FLOPPERS (219 Game) -19.38

5. Arlington Assaulters (237 Games) -16.98

6. Gamblor (229 Games) - 17.29 

7. Rodman'sWeddingDress (246 Games) - 16.00

8. Baltimore Hitsquad  (233 Games) - 16.52

9. Ohsnappers!!! (221 Games) -10.66

League Average (239 Games) - 17.76

A few things to note on this metric. First, F'N FLOPPERS' average points per game remains unchanged at 19.38 compared to week 8, so they're fouling pretty consistently. Based off this Metric, Pgastan FC and Oww Ming's Flagrants are under performing. Whereas, GG Foulin' is over performing. This time the top 4 teams are all fouling above the league average.

 

Projected Final Standings:
 
Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression)  

1. GG Foulin' - 9,215 (9,215) 

2. Pgastan FC - 8,815 (9,480)

3. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 8,685 (8,920)

4. F'N FLOPPERS - 7,075 (7,295)

5. Arlington Assaulters - 6,710 (6.940)

6. Gamblor - 6,600 (7,050) 

7. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 6,560 (6,735)

8. Baltimore Hitsquad - 6,415 (6,660)

9. Ohsnappers!!! - 3,925 (4,190)

 

Based off the traditional regression method the standings are in order but let's take a look at linear regression to see where the teams are really projected to finish. Ohsnappers!!! is projected to finish last and it looks like Baltimore Hitsquad and Rodman'sWeddingDress are project4ed to finish 8th and 7th respectively. Gamblor is "out of place" in 6th right now as they are projected to finish in 5th and Arlington Assaulters is projected to finish in 6th. F'N FLOPPERS appears to be on track for 4th place. As for the top 3, Pgastan FC is projected to win with GG Foulin' in 2nd and Oww Ming in 3rd. 

 

Points Graph:

 

Tier 3: Ohsnappers!!!

Tier 2: F'N FLOPPERS, Arlington Assaulters, Gamblor, Rodman'sWeddingDress, Baltimore Hitsquad

Tier 1: GG Foulin', Pgastan FC, Oww Ming's Flagrants

I think you can nitpick the tiers to something more granular but we essentially have just 3 tiers. Ohsnappers!!! still at the bottom, a huge jumble of 5 tams in the middle, and then the top 3. As has been the case the last few weeks, only tier 1 is fouling about league average. F'N FLOPPERS kind of pulled away from tier 2 into possible a separate tier but still pretty close. We'll see if they can widen their lead this week.

Well that's it for now.

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM