Monday, November 27, 2023

Week 5 Roundup: Tournament Donkage Edition

When planning ahead for this week I noticed the following week had no games scheduled. I figured it was due to the in-season tournament but want4d to confirm. And sure enough it was. The last round of group stage games are tomorrow so we'll get the games for next week probably on Wednesday or by Thursday at eh earliest. Actually, come to think of it since all games but the final will count towards the regular season, I wonder if there are no games scheduled beyond December 2nd as of now? Eh, looks like they got stuff for January. 
 
Anyway, so what's going to happen next week is that the tams that make the knockout round will play a quarterfinal on Monday or Tuesday. Then the teams that didn't make that stage will play a game on Wednesday. The semifinals will be played on Thursday, December 7th followed by another day in which the teams that didn't make the knockout stages for Friday. Those 22 teams will be joined by the 4 teams that lost in the quarterfinals as well. The Championship game will be on December 9th and will not count for the NFA. So, suffice it to say next week may be a light week in the NFA. I'll post more on it in next week's post when we have a schedule. Now let's get on to this week's post. 

Stat Corrections:
- Leonard Miller had a personal foul given to him retroactive to November 22nd. No one had him on their foul club so this doesn't affect any standings.
 
Transactions
- Ohsnappers!!! added DeAndre Hunter and dropped Brook Lopez on November 24th
- Pgastan FC added Daniel Gafford and dropped P.J. Washington on November 25th
- Pgastan FC added Ausar Thompson on November 26th
- GG Foulin' added Scoot Henderson and dropped Jalen Williams on November 26th

Standings as of November 27th, 2023
 
1. GG Foulin' - 2870 (+535)
2. Pgastan FC - 2675 (+470)
3. Arlington Assaulters - 2510 (+640)
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 2365 (+410)
5. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 2015 (+510) 
6. Ohsnappers!!! - 1870 (+325)
7. F'N FLOPPERS - 1865 (+370)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad - 1665 (+250)
9. Gamblor - 1560 (+485)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week
 
Gamblor had a great week of 485 points but remains in last place. Baltimore Hitsquad had a poor week of 250 points and remains in 8th place. F'N FLOPPERS had an average week of 370 points and stays in 7th place. Ohsnappers!!! had an average week of 325 points and falls to 6th place from 5th. Rodman'sWeddingDress had an excellent week of 510 points and moves up to 5th place from 6th place.

Oww Ming's Flagrants had a great week of 410 points but falls to 4th place from 3rd place. Arlington Assautlers had an amazing week of 640 points and moves up to 3rd place from 4th place. Pgastan FC had a great week of 470 points and stays in 2nd place. Finally, GG Foulin' had an excellent week of 535 points and stays in 1st place. 

Points Graph:
 
 
Tier 4: Baltimore Hitsquad, Gamblor
Tier 3: Rodman'sWeddingDress, Ohsnappers!!!, F'N FLOPPERS
Tier 2: Arlington Assaulters, Oww Ming's Flagrants
Tier 1: GG Foulin', Pgastan FC

Tiers had some shake up this week as they didn't split that easily at least going only by the graph. The actual points in the standings can make it easier to see though. The bottom 2 tiers are pretty good, though Rodman is ahead of Ohsnappers!!! and F'N FLOPPERS. GG Foulin' could arguably be in their own tier atop with Pgastan FC joining Tier 2 but went with historical precedent for this week's tiers and put PFC in tier 1 for now Of course the tiers are fluid throughout the season so we'll just have to wait and see what happens next.

Well that's it for now.

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM

Monday, November 20, 2023

Week 4 Roundup: 1st Month Analysis Blowout!

 You know the deal for these, it's a long post so let's get right to it. 

Stat Corrections:
 - There were no stat corrections this week
 
Transactions
- Ohsnappers!!! added Jalen Suggs and dropped Fred VanVleet on November 13th
- Pgastan FC added Jordan Hawkins and dropped Ausar Thompson on November 18th
- Arlington Assaulters added Bobby Portis on November 19th


Standings as of November 20th, 2023
 
1. GG Foulin' - 2335 (+385)
2. Pgastan FC - 2205 (+400)
3. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 1955 (+350)
4. Arlington Assaulters - 1870 (+710) 
5. Ohsnappers!!! - 1545 (+525)
6. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 1505 (+305)
7. F'N FLOPPERS - 1495 (+385)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad - 1415 (+470)
9. Gamblor - 1075 (+385)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week
 
Gamblor had an average week of 385 points and stays in last place. Baltimore Hitsquad had a great week of 470 points but stays in 8th place. F'N FLOPPERS had an average week of 385 points and drops to 7th place from 6th. Rdoman'sWeddingDress had an average week of 305 points and falls to 6th place from 4th. Ohsnappers!!! had an excellent week of 525 points and moves up to 5th place from 7th. 
 
Arlington Assaulters had an amazing week of 710 points and moves up to 4th place from 5th. Oww Ming's Flagrants had an average week of 350 points bus tays in 3rd place. Pgastan FC had a great week of 400 point but stays in 2nd place. GG Foulin' had an average week of 385 points but stays atop the leaderboard. 
 
Average Points Per Game - Avg PPG (Last Month Avg PPG)
 
1. GG Foulin' (86 Games) - 27.15 (N/A)
2. Pgastan FC (84 Games) - 26.25 (N/A)
3. Oww Ming's Flagrants (85 Games) - 23.00 (N/A)
4. Arlington Assaulters (80 Games) - 23.38 (N/A) 
5. Ohsnappers!!! (83 Games) - 18.61 (N/A)
6. Rodman'sWeddingDress (90 Games) - 16.72 (N/A
7. F'N FLOPPERS (86 Games) - 17.38 (N/A)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad (83 Games) - 17.05 (N/A)
9. Gamblor (89 Games) - 12.08 (N/A)
 
League Average (85 Games) - 20.18 (N/A) 
 
In terms of points per game Arlington Assautlers is in 3rd place while Oww Ming is slightly behind in 4th place.  The league average fits nicely between 4th and 5th place. Rodman'sWeddingDress should be in 8th place, while F'N FLOPPERS should be in 6th and Baltimore Hitsquad in 7th. 

Projected Final Standings:
 
Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression) [Previous Month's LR]  
 
1. GG Foulin' - 14,595 (15,320) [N/A]
2. Pgastan FC - 13,780 (14,070) [N/A]
3. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 12,220 (12,235) [N/A] 
4. Arlington Assaulters - 11,690 (10,115) [N/A] 
5. Ohsnappers!!! - 9,655 (8,775) [N/A] 
6. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 9,405 (9,580) [N/A]
7. F'N FLOPPERS -  9,345 (9,095) [N/A] 
8. Baltimore Hitsquad - 8,845 (8,215) [N/A]
9. Gamblor - 6,720 (6,200) [N/A]
 
In terms of linear regression, the top 4 are correct but after that it gets a little tricky. Rodman'sWeddingDress should be in 5th, F'N FLOPPERS should be in 66h, and Ohsnappers!!! should be in 7th. Baltimore Hitsquad and Gamblor are correctly in 8th and 9th respectively. 

Points Graph:
 
 
Tier 4: Gamblor
Tier 3: Ohsnappers!!!, Rodman'sWeddingDress, F'N FLOPPERS, Baltimore Hitsquad
Tier 2: Oww Ming's Flagrants, Arlington Assaulters
Tier 1: GG Foulin', Pgastan FC

We're only 4 weeks in but we do have 4 pretty distinct tiers. The usual powerhouses are at the top and the usual bottom feeders have found the cellar already. It's still early though, and a lot can change in the next 21 weeks. 

Well that's it for now.

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM