Week 12 Roundup: 3rd Month Analysis Blowout!

It's that time again in the official NFA blogging schedule and being that these posts are long and it's already late, let's get right into the 3rd Month Analysis Blowout! 

Stat Corrections:
- There were no stat corrections this week

 

Transactions: 

- Pgastan FC dropped James Harden on January 8th

- Pgastan FC added Josh Jackson on January 9th

 

Standings as of January 10th, 2022:

 

1. Pgastan FC - 5975 (+470)  

2. GG Foulin' - 5445 (+250)

3. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 5110 (+370)

4. Arlington Assaulters - 5055 (+630)  

5. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 4580 (+565)  

6. Gamblor - 4355 (+190) 

7. Baltimore Hitsquad - 4315 (+265) 

8. F'N FLOPPERS - 3720 (+625) 

8. Ohsnappers!!! - 3720 (+350)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

 

We have some shakeup at the bottom as we have a tie for 8th! Ohsnappers!!! is had an average week of 350 points and stays in a tie for 8th. F'N FLOPPERS had an amazing week of 625 points and moves up into a tie for 8th. Baltimore Hitsquad had a poor week of 265 points and falls from 6th to 7th place. Gamblor had a horrible week of 190 points and falls from 5th to 6th place. Oww Ming's Flagrants had an excellent week of 565 points and moves up to 5th from 7th.

 

Arlington Assaulters had an amazing week of 630 points and stays in 4th place. Rodman'sWeddingDress had an average week of 370 points and stays in 3rd place. GG Foulin' had a poor week of 250 points and stays in 2nd place. Finally, Pgastan FC had a great week of 470 points and stays atop the standings.

Average Points Per Game - Avg PPG (Last Month Avg PPG)

 

1. Pgastan FC (274 Games) - 21.81 (22.03)  

2. GG Foulin' (258 Games) - 21.10 (21.75)

3. Rodman'sWeddingDress (262 Games) - 19.50 (18.36)

4. Arlington Assaulters (245 Games) - 20.63 (20.32)

5. Oww Ming's Flagrants (233 Games) - 19.66 (19.29)

6. Gamblor (237 Games) - 18.38 (19.38) 

7. Baltimore Hitsquad (225 Games) - 19.18 (17.79)

8. F'N FLOPPERS (246 Games) -  15.12 (14.24) 

8. Ohsnappers!!! (230 Games) - 16.17 (16.27)

 

League Average (246 Games) -  19.06 (18.82) 

A few observations to note in this month's points per game update. Rodman'sWeddingDress and Baltimore Hitsquad gain over 1 point per game while Gamblor loses exactly 1 point per game. Arlington Assaulters is under performing as they should be in 3rd whereas Rodman'sWeddingDress is over performing as they should be in 5th. Also under performing is Oww Ming'sFlagrants who should be in 4th. Gamblor is over performing by 1 spot as well. Finally, 3 foul clubs (Gamblor, F'N FLOPPERS, and Ohsnappers!!!) are the only 3 clubs fouling below league average.

Projected Final Standings:
 
Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression) [Previous Month's LR]  

 

1. Pgastan FC - 12,660 (12,860) [12,860]   

2. GG Foulin' - 11,540 (12,380) [13,195] 

3. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 10,830 (11,160) [11,705]

4. Arlington Assaulters - 10,710 (10,690) [10,855]

5. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 9,705 (9,730) [9,955]

6. Gamblor - 9,230 (9,905) [10,670]

7. Baltimore Hitsquad - 9,145 (9,610) [10,130]

8. F'N FLOPPERS - 7,880 (7,680) [7,900]

8. Ohsnappers!!! - 7,880 (8,230) [8,945]

 

The first thing I noticed in the projected final standings when putting this together was that Pgastan FC's LR projection is the same as it was in week 8. That means they are fouling pretty consistently over the last month which has not been a guarantee given all the time foulers are missing games. The first Foul Club "our of place" is Gamblor who is projected to finish in 5th. That means Oww Ming is also out of place as they are projected to finish 6th. Despite being currently tied at the bottom Ohsnappers!!! is projected to finish well ahead of F'N FLOPPERS so we'll see if this was just a blip or the start of a downward trend. 

Points Graph:

 

 

Tier 4: F'N FLOPPERS, Ohsnappers!!!

Tier 3: Oww Ming's Flagrants, Gamblor, Baltimore Hitsquad

Tier 2: Rodman'sWeddingDress, Arlington Assaulters

Tier 1: Pgastan FC, GG Foulin'

The tiers remain the same as last week though the order did shakeup a little bit. Oww Ming's Flagrants departed themselves from the rest of Tier 3 this week. Obviously, F'N FLOPPERS is now neck-and-neck with Ohsnappers!!! in the bottom tier. Arlington Asssaulters gained a lot of ground on Rodman's but it wasn't enough to overtake them. Finally, Pgastan FC gained some gave them more separation from GG Foulin' as well. 

Well that's it for now.

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM