Week 4 Roundup: 1st Month Analysis Blowout!

It's that time again! Time for our first analysis blowout post! Well, there's a lot to cover this week so let's get right to it.

Stat Corrections

- Markieff Morris was credited with an ejection retroactive to November 8th. Pgastan FC had him active that week so he gains 100 points.

How you miss an ejection is beyond me. My sources tell me Pgastan FC GM was in constant contact with Yahoo! to try and rectify the issue. Perhaps the official scorers need a Fouling 101 refresh. Did they not know a Flagrant 2 is an automatic ejection? Anyway, with that stat correction, Pgastan FC scored a whopping 400 points on Monday, November 8th. They were only a techy away from a team cycle as well. His final line that night is now 20-2-0-1-1 (PF-DQ-T-F-E). 

Transactions

- GG Foulin' added Kelly Oubre Jr. on November 8th

- Ohsnappers!!! added Josh Hart and dropped RJ Barrett on November 12th

- Pgastan FC added Georges Niang and dropped Khris Middleton on November 13th

- Gamblor added Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry on November 13th

- Rodman'sWeddingDress added  Bam Adebayo on November 14th

- Arlington Assaulters dropped Chris Boucher on November 14th

Standings as of November 15th, 2021

 

1. GG Foulin' - 2150 (+640)

2. Pgastan FC - 2090 (+820)  

3. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 2050 (+670)

4. Gamblor - 2000 (+570) 

5. Arlington Assaulters - 1690 (+620)

6. Baltimore Hitsquad - 1665 (+485)

7. Ohsnappers!!! - 1630 (+485)

8. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 1575 (+370)

9. F'N FLOPPERS -  1205 (+365)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

 

Pretty high scoring week for the league overall. F'N FLOPPERS was not one of them as they only had an average week of 365 points and stays in last place. Oww Ming's Flagrants also had an average week scoring 370 points and falls from 5th to 8th. Ohsnappers!!! had a great week of 485 points but stays in 7th place. Baltimore Hitsquad had an average week of 485 points and stays in 6th place. Arlington Assaulters had an amazing week of 620 points and moves up from 8th place to 5th as they continue their ascendancy after a slow start.

 

Gamblor had an excellent week of 570 points but actually falls from 2nd to 4th. Rodman'sWeddingDress had an amazing week of 670 points but surprisingly stays in 3rd place. Pgastan FC had an amazing week of 820 points and moves up from 4th to 2nd. Finally, GG Foulin' had an amazing week of 640 points and stays in first. 

Average Points Per Game - Avg PPG (Last Month Avg PPG)

 

1. GG Foulin' (92 Games) - 23.37 (N/A)

2. Pgastan FC (92 Games) - 22.72 (N/A)  

3. Rodman'sWeddingDress (93 Games) - 22.04 (N/A)

4. Gamblor (87 Games) - 22.99 (N/A) 

5. Arlington Assaulters (86 Games) - 19.65 (N/A)

6. Baltimore Hitsquad (88 Games) - 18.92 (N/A)

7. Ohsnappers!!! (89 Games) - 18.31 (N/A)

8. Oww Ming's Flagrants (86 Games) - 18.31 (N/A)

9. F'N FLOPPERS (87 Games) -  13.85 (N/A) 

 

League Average (89 Games) - 20.02 (N/A) 

 

So first of all, I am leaving that spot for last month's Avg PPG so I don't forget to add it for month 2. A few things to note from the above. First is that the games played is relatively close for everyone only ranging from 86 to 93. Also by this metric, Gamblor is under performing and should be in 2nd place, Pgastan FC is over performing and should be in 3rd and Rodman'sWeddingDress is over performing and should be in 4th. The rest of the league is fouling at expected value. 

 

Projected Final Standings:
 
Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression) [Previous Month's LR]  

 

1. GG Foulin' - 13,670 (13,260) [N/A]

2. Pgastan FC - 13,285 (12,065) [N/A]

3. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 13,030 (12,300) [N/A]

4. Gamblor - 12,715 (12,455) [N/A]

5. Arlington Assaulters - 10,745 (9,310) [N/A]

6. Baltimore Hitsquad - 10,585 (10,255) [N/A]

7. Ohsnappers!!! - 10,360 (10,045) [N/A]

8. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 10,010 (10,165) [N/A]

9. F'N FLOPPERS -  7,660 (7,260) [N/A]

 

The above is in order of traditional method and thus current standings but the number you want to look at is the linear regression in the parentheses. So by that method GG Foulin' is still projected to win the league after 4 weeks. It's the next 3 Foul Clubs (like points per game metric) that things get different. Pgastan FC is projected to finish 4th, Rodman'sWeddingDress 3rd and Gamblor 2nd. Actually, Baltimore Hitsquad is projected to finish in 5th, Oww Ming's Flagrants in 6th, Ohsnappers!!! in 7th and Arlington Assaulters in 8th. Oh and F'N FLOPPERS is projected to finish in last place, but that's no surprise. 

Points Graph:

 

 

Tier 3: F'N FLOPPERS

Tier 2: Arlington Assaulters, Baltimore Hitsquad, Ohsnappers!!!, Oww Ming's Flagrants

Tier 1: Gamblor, Rodman'sWeddingDress, Pgastan FC, GG Foulin'

So after 4 weeks we have just 3 tiers but they are pretty distinct. Clearly in the bottom tier is F'N FLOPPERS. Then in Tier 2 you have the next 4 teams kind of jumbled up with each other. What's interesting is that the league average is clearly the dividing line between tiers 1 and 2. But of course it's still early so need a little larger sample size. But it's never too early to start analyzing!

Well that's it for now.

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM