Monday, January 18, 2021

Week 4 Roundup: 1st Month Analysis Blowout!

Well, we've made it through 1 month of NFA action and hopefully we can keep it going. Though COVID seems to be starting to disrupt the league schedule with tons of postponements as of late. We'll see if the Association can get their act together and this becomes more akin to what happened in MLB this year as opposed to having to cancel the season or something. Well since this is usually a long post I'm going to get right into it. 

Stat Corrections
- There were no stat corrections this week

 
Transactions
- Oww Ming's Flagrants added Victor Oladipo on January 11th
- Gamblor added DeAndre Jordan and dropped Thomas Bryant on January 11th
- Oww Ming's Flagrants dropped Victor Oladipo on January 14th
- Baltimore Hitsquad added Chris Boucher and dropped Ian Mahinmi on January 14th
- GG Foulin' added Naz Reid on January 15th
- Pgastan FC added PJ Washington and dropped Cam Reddish on January 17th
- GG Foulin' added Willie Cauley-Stein and dropped Aaron Holiday on January 17th
 
Standings as of January 18th, 2021
 
1. Pgastan FC - 2020 (+480) 
2. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 1710 (+285) 
3. GG Foulin' - 1600 (+235)
4. F'N FLOPPERS - 1525 (+280) 
5. Baltimore Hitsquad - 1385 (+370)
6. Gamblor - 1285 (+150)
7. Arlington Assaulters - 1250 (+155)
8. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 1050 (+200)
9. Ohsnappers!!! - 885 (+205)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week
 
Ohsnappers!!! had a poor week of 205 points and stays in last place. Rodman'sWeddingDress had a poor week of 200 points and remains in 8th place. Arlington Assaulters had a horrible week of 155 points and falls from 6th to 7th place. Gamblor had a horrible week of 150 points and falls from 5th to 6th place. Baltimore Hitsquad scored 370 points for the 2nd week in the and catapults from 7th to 5th place. 
 
F'N FLOPPERS had a poor week of 280 points and stays in 4th place. GG Foulin' had a poor week of 235 points and stays in 3rd place. Oww Ming's Flagrants had a poor week of 285 points and stays in 2nd place. Finally, Pgastan FC had a great week of 480 points and remains in 1st place. 
 
 
Average Points Per Game
 
1. Pgastan FC (88 Games) - 17.50
2. Oww Ming's Flagrants (85 Games) -16.76
3. GG Foulin' (86 Games) - 15.87
4. F'N FLOPPERS (73 Game) -17.05
5. Baltimore Hitsquad (82 Games) - 12.38
6. Gamblor (77 Games) - 14.74
7. Arlington Assaulters (72 Games) - 15.21
8. Rodman'sWeddingDress (80 Games) - 10.63
9. Ohsnappers!!! (79 Games) - 8.61

League Average (80 Games) - 14.31

According to this metric Pgastan FC is still leading the league with 17.50 points per game but F'N FLOPPERS should be in 2nd place averaging 17.05 points per game but only has 73 games playeed. Oww Ming and GG Foulin' would be in 3rd and 4th respectively. Arlington Assaulters should be in 5th followed by Gamblor. Baltimore Hitsquad is over performing right now and could be susceptible to reverting back to the mean as this metric has him in 7th. Rodman'sWeddingDress and Ohsnappers!! are in the correct places in the league standings according to this metric.

Projected Final Standings:
 
Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression)  

1. Pgastan FC - 10,100 (10,100)
2. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 8,550 (9,055)
3. GG Foulin' - 8,000 (8,560)
4. F'N FLOPPERS - 7,625 (7,535)
5. Baltimore Hitsquad - 6,925 (6,715)
6. Gamblor - 6,425 (6,825)
7. Arlington Assaulters - 6,250 (6,645)
8. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 5,250 (5,475)
9. Ohsnappers!!! - 4,425 (4,365)

Because we have 20 weeks this season and Pgastan FC had 2020 points to end week 4 we get the same score for both methods. He's the only one anywhere near 10,000 points projected, though that will certainly come down. The only team "out of place" if you will seems to be Baltimore Hitsquad who is projected to finish in 6th as opposed to 5th based of linear regression. 

Points Graph:
 
Tier 5: Ohsnappers!!!
Tier 4: Rodman'sWeddingDress
Tier 3: Arlington Assaulters, Gamblor, Baltimore Hitsquad
Tier 2: F'N FLOPPERS, GG Foulin', Oww Ming's Flagrants
Tier 1: Pgastan FC
 
Time will tell if these tiers hold up but that's how I am seeing the breakdown based on the points graph. 
 
Well that's it for now.
 
Keep Foulin' Y'all!
 
FM

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