Monday, December 18, 2023

Week 8 Roundup: 2nd Month Analysis Blowout!

This is going to be a long post and hte sooner I write this the sooner I can get back to my Ocarina of Time play through I started a few days ago in honor of that game's 25th anniversary last month So let's get right into it.

Stat Corrections:
- Isaiah Stewart had an ejection given to him retroactive to December 13th. Pgastan FC had him active that week so he gains 100 points.
 
Transactions
- Arlington Assaulters added Georges Niang on December 13th
- Arlington Assaulters dropped Jae Crowder on December 13th
- Arlington Assaulters added Jonathan Kuminga on December 13th
- Pgastan FC added Toumani Camara on December 17th

Standings as of December 18th, 2023
 
1. Pgastan FC - 4025 (+535)
2. GG Foulin' - 3900 (+460)
3. Arlington Assaulters - 3820 (+605) 
4. F'N FLOPPERS - 3505 (+675) 
5. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 3465 (+515)
6. Gamblor - 2795 (+495) 
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 2755 (+310)
8. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 2685 (+400) 
9. Baltimore Hitsquad - 2525 (+365)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week
 
Baltimore Hitsquad had an average week of 365 points but stays in last place. Rodman'sWeddingDress had a great week of 400 points but stays in 8th place. Ohsnappers!!! had an average week of 310 points but falls to 7th place. Gamblor had a great week of 495 points and moves up to 6th place. Oww Ming's Flagrants had an excellent week of 515 points but falls to 5th place. 
 
F'N FLOPPERS had an amazing week of 675 points (315 of those points came yesterday, more on that in a second) and moves up to 4th place. Arlington Assaulters had an amazing week of 605 points but stays in 3rd place. GG Foulin' had a great week of 460 points and stays in 2nd place. Finally, Pgastan FC had an excellent week of 535 points and stays in 1st place. 

Now, back to F'N FLOPPERS big day yesterday as we had our first ever triple-techy ejection! That's right. I can't find exactly what happened but Dillon Brooks must have received a techy for flopping then got a DTE.

Average Points Per Game - Avg PPG (Last Month Avg PPG)
 
1. Pgastan FC (167 Games) - 24.10 (26.25)
2. GG Foulin' (174 Games) - 22.41 (27.15)
3. Arlington Assaulters (160 Games) - 23.88 (23.38) 
4. F'N FLOPPERS (170 Games) - 20.62 (17.38)
5. Oww Ming's Flagrants (161 Games) - 21.52 (23.00)
6. Gamblor (165 Games) - 16.94 (12.08)
7. Ohsnappers!!! (152 Games) - 18.13 (18.61)
8. Rodman'sWeddingDress (165 Games) - 16.27 (16.72)
9. Baltimore Hitsquad (158 Games) - 15.98 (17.05)
 
League Average (164 Games) - 19.98 (20.18)  
 
Being a 2nd month in points per game have started to normalize. We have 5 teams fouling above the league average. Arlington Assautlers should be in 2nd place by this metric and Oww Ming should be in 4th. Gamblor should be in 7th while F'N FLOPPERS should be in 5th. 

Projected Final Standings:
 
Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression) [Previous Month's LR]  
 
1. Pgastan FC - 12,580 (12,980) [14,070] 
2. GG Foulin' - 12,190 (13,115) [15,320]
3. Arlington Assaulters - 11,940 (11,685) [10,115]
4. F'N FLOPPERS -  10,955 (10,020) [9,095]
5. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 10,830 (11,215) [12,235] 
6. Gamblor - 8,735 (8,120) [6,200]
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 8,610 (8,955) [8,775] 
8. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 8,390 (8,835) [9,580]
9. Baltimore Hitsquad - 7,890 (8,055) [8,215]

According to linear regression, GG Foulin' should be in 1st place and Pgastan FC should be in 2nd place. F'N  FLOPPERS and Oww Ming should also be flipped. Ohsnappers!!! should be in 6th place and Rodman'sWeddingDress should be in 7th place. Finally, Gamblor should be in 8th. 

Points Graph:
 
 
Tier 3: Gamblor, Ohsnappers!!!, Rodman'sWeddingDress, Baltimore Hitsquad
Tier 2: F'N FLOPPERS, Oww Ming's Flagrants
Tier 1: Pgastan FC, GG Foulin', Arlington Assaulters

We still have 3 distinct tiers we had last week though some of the teams have moved around within a tier. It's actually pretty crazy to have these tiers formed so early in the season. We'll see if they hold up or for how long. 

Well that's it for now.

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM

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