Week 20 Roundup: 5th Month Analysis Blowout!

Can you believe it's already the 5th month into the NFA Season? This basically means the last big analysis post. There will be one more but it'll be the 2nd to last week of the season so likely won't tell us anything. We'll see if I write that one as I debated last year looking at my posts. In any case, let's get into this one. 

Stat Corrections
- There were 2 stat corrections this week but neither player is currently employed so we'll skip those.

Transactions

- Pgastan FC dropped Andrew Nembhard on March 5th

- GG Foulin' dropped Mo Bamba on March 5th

Standings as of March 6th, 2023

 

1. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 10265 (+505)  

2. GG Foulin' - 9645 (+400) 

3. Pgastan FC - 9625 (+515) 

4. Baltimore Hitsquad - 8815 (+290)

5. Gamblor - 8425 (+405)

6. Arlington Assaulters - 8000  (+485) 

7. F'N FLOPPERS - 7340 (+420)   

8. Ohsnappers!!! - 6080 (+365)

9. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 5630 (+195) 

 

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

 

Rodman'sWeddingDress had a horrible week of 195 points and stays in last place. Ohsnappers!!! had an average week of 365 and stays in 8th place. F'N FLOPPERS had a great week of 420 points and stays in 7th place. Arlington Assaulters had a great week of 485 and stays in 6th place but does reach the 8000 point mark. Gamblor had a great week of 405 points and stays in 5th place. 

Baltimore Hitsquad had a poor week of 290 points and stays in 4th place. Pgastan FC had an excellent week 515 points and stays in 3rd place. GG Foulin' had a great week of 400 points and stays in 2nd place, barely. Oww Ming's Flagrants continues his dominance with a 505 point week and remains comfortably in 1st place.

 

Average Points Per Game - Avg PPG (Last Month Avg PPG)

 

1. Oww Ming's Flagrants (425 Games) -  24.15 (25.08)

2. GG Foulin' (451 Games) - 21.39 (21.27)

3. Pgastan FC (421 Games) - 22.86 (23.22) 

4. Baltimore Hitsquad (429 Games) - 20.55 (20.91)

5. Gamblor (399 Games) -  21.12 (21.81) 

6. Arlington Assaulters (406 Games) - 19.70 (19.13) 

7. F'N FLOPPERS (382 Games) - 19.21 (19.34) 

8. Ohsnappers!!! (359 Games) -  16.94 (17.52) 

9. Rodman'sWeddingDress (355 Games) - 15.86 (16.41)

League Average (403 Games) - 20.20 (20.52) 

 

Again, this metric can tell us which teams are over performing or under performing. By this metric Pgastan FC is under performing by a little bit and should be in 2nd place but GG Foulin' has played 30 more games than him. Gamblor is under performing as well as he has played 30 fewer games than Baltimore Hitsquad. Other than that the foul clubs seem to be fouling appropriately.

Projected Final Standings:
 
Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression) [Previous Month's LR]  

 

1. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 12,830 (13,200) [13,255]

2. GG Foulin' - 12,055 (12,250) [12,225]

3. Pgastan FC - 12,030 (12,240) [12,275] 

4. Baltimore Hitsquad - 11,020 (11,530) [11,775] 

5. Gamblor - 10,530 (11,425) [11,985] 

6. Arlington Assaulters - 10,000 (10,395) [10,720]

7. F'N FLOPPERS -  9,175 (9,420) [9,585] 

8. Ohsnappers!!! - 7,600 (7,915) [8,140]

9. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 7,040 (7,855) [8,380]

Starting from the bottom the big question for Rodman'sWeddingDress is how low will they score? Clearly on pace to have their worst season yet. Oh how a dynasty has fallen! They still hold the all-time season scoring record and it looks like that will continue to be safe barring an incredible finish by Oww Ming's Flagrants. It looks like GG Foulin' and Pgastan FC are due for a wild close finish by both metrics as the traditional method has 25 points separating them while linear regression has only 10 points. Also, of note, Gamblor will come just short of overtaking Baltimore Hitsquad for 4th. 

Points Graph:

 

 

Tier 7: Ohsnappers!!!, Rodman'sWeddingDress

Tier 6: F'N FLOPPERS

Tier 5: Arlington Assaulters

Tier 4: Gamblor

Tier 3: Baltimore Hitsquad

Tier 2: GG Foulin', Pgastan FC

Tier 1: Oww Ming's Flagrants

 

It's been a crazy season with teams being pretty spaced out for a while now. We now have 7 tiers which doesn't happen much. There's honestly not much to write about here as the season feels like it's pretty over with only races for 2nd and 8th to be decided. Of course with 5 weeks remaining we could get a surprise here or there but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

Well that's it for now.

 

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

 

FM