I was debating whether or not to write the Week 24 post as a 6th month analysis blowout or not since it's the last week of the season. I decided to do it as we still have the title race to play out and the 3rd place truel to play out. Also, I realized a few weeks ago that my projections have been slightly off this season as the season now ends on a Sunday so the final week is a full week. There are 25 weeks exactly in the season whereas before the pandemic the season ended on a Wednesday which meant there were 25.428571 weeks in the season. It shouldn't be much but I did adjust the numbers for this week, though I'm not going to do it retroactively for the rest of the posts.
Stat Corrections:
- There were no stat corrections this week
- There were no stat corrections this week
Well Yahoo! seems to be getting lazier when it comes to stat corrections. It seems like every team probably lost at least 1 techy to some stat error. Oh well.
Transactions:
- GG Foulin added Killian Hayes on March 29th- GG Foulin' added James Harden and dropped Isaac Okoro on March 31st
- Oww Ming's Flagrants dropped Miles Bridges on March 31st
- Pgastan FC added OG Anunoby on April 3rd
- Pgastan FC added Clint Capela and dropped Alperen Sengun on April 3rd
- Pgastan FC added Khris Middleton and dropped OG Anunoby on April 3rd
- GG Foulin' dropped Hassan Whiteside on April 3rd
- GG Foulin' dropped Kristaps Porzingis on April 3rd
- GG Foulin' added Keon Johnson and dropped Killian Hayes on April 3rd
- GG Foulin' added Kris Dunn and dropped Mitchell Robinson on April 3rd
Quite a lot of activity on the waiver wire, especially at the deadline to make moves so they'd be on a roster for this week.
Standings as of April 4th, 2022:
1. GG Foulin' - 11155 (+345)
2. Pgastan FC - 10950 (+445)
3. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 10130 (+575)
4. Arlington Assaulters - 10070 (+625)
5. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 9920 (+380)
6. Baltimore Hitsquad - 9130 (+470)
7. Gamblor - 8855 (+400)
8. Ohsnappers!!! - 7695 (+295)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 6480 (+210)
<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week
F'N FLOPPERS had a poor week of 210 points and stays comfortably in last place. Ohsnappers!!! had a poor week of 295 points and is firmly in 8th place. Gamblor had a great week of 400 points and remains in 7th place. Baltimore Hitsquad had a great week of 470 points and stays in 6th place.
Rodman'sWeddingDress had an average week of 380 points and falls to 5th place. Arlington Assaulters had an amazing week of 625 points (that's 1340 points in the last 2 weeks) and moves up to 4th place. Oww Ming's Falgrants had an excellent week of 575 points and stays in 3rd place. We have a truel for 3rd place that's going to come down to the final week! Pgastan FC had a great week of 445 points and stays in 2nd place. GG Foulin' had an average week of 345 points and stays in 1st place but only 205 points ahead of Pgastan FC, so there's a chance for PFC but it's not likely.
Average Points Per Game - Avg PPG (Last Month Avg PPG)
1. GG Foulin' (518 Games) - 21.53 (21.60)
2. Pgastan FC (529 Games) - 20.70 (20.58)
3. Oww Ming's Flagrants (491 Games) - 20.63 (20.78)
4. Arlington Assaulters (476 Games) - 21.16 (19.97)
5. Rodman'sWeddingDress (514 Games) - 19.30 (19.49)
6. Baltimore Hitsquad (465 Games) - 19.63 (19.89)
7. Gamblor (456 Games) - 19.42 (19.62)
8. Ohsnappers!!! (451 Games) - 17.06 (17.36)
9. F'N FLOPPERS (420 Games) - 15.43 (15.79)
So some craziness especially after Arlington Assaulters crazy 2 weeks. In fact by this metric Arlington Assaulters is projected to finish 2nd (of course that's not going to happen). It's also notable that Arlington Assaulters gained 1.19 points per game in the last month which is pretty crazy this late in the season. One other thing to note from this is how low Rodman'sWeddingDress is fouling per game despite being in the race for 3rd.
Projected Final Standings:
Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression) [Previous Month's LR]
Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression) [Previous Month's LR]
1. GG Foulin' - 11,620 (11,775) [12,075]
2. Pgastan FC - 11,405 (11,700) [12,140]
3. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 10,550 (10,315) [10,395]
4. Arlington Assaulters - 10,490 (10,055) [10,150]
5. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 10,335 (10,490) [10,725]
6. Baltimore Hitsquad - 9,510 (9,460) [9,630]
7. Gamblor - 9,225 (9,365) [9,575]
8. Ohsnappers!!! - 8,015 (8,165) [8,365] 9. F'N FLOPPERS - 6,750 (7,235) [7,625]
Some more craziness when projecting the final standings with only 1 week to go. First is that F'N FLOPPERS linear regression has him scoring 800 points this week. What that really means is that his team has regressed the last month and is fouling under his line of best fit. Another interesting finding is that Arlington Assaulters traditional method projects 435 more points than linear regression, which means the 1300+ points he scored the last 2 weeks are a bit of an anomaly and are throwing his numbers off. Can he keep it up one more week to finish in 3rd? Using linear regression, top 3 would be GG Foulin', Pgastan FC, and Rodman'sWeddingDresss in that order.
Points Graph:
Tier 5: F'N FLOPPERS
Tier 4: Ohsnappers!!!
Tier 3: Baltimore Hitsquad, Gamblor
Tier 2: Oww Ming's Flagrants, Arlington Assaulters, Rodman'sWeddingDress
Tier 1: GG Foulin', Pgastan FC
Only real change is the flip between Arlington Assaulters and Rodman'sWeddingDress in tier 2. You can clearly see the tier 2 teams converge for this final week truel for the bronze. In addition to that, we have a duel for the title as well as for 6th place, though that's unlikely to change but Gamblor is not out of the race for 6th quite yet.
Well that's it for now.
Keep Foulin' Y'all!
FM
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