Week 9 Roundup: Haves and Have-Nots Edition

So as I was updating the spreadsheet where I can track weekly scores by each foul club and then subsequently graph it I noticed something very interesting in the graph. Because Ohsnappers!!! has such a low score and PFC, GG Foulin, and Oww Ming, have such a high score the latter 3 teams are the only teams above the league average of 3,387 points. I think this is the first time that only 3-teams have been above the league average. This will be more apparent when I post the graph below and do a more detailed write-up but it looks like we have:

 

The Haves: Pgastan FC, GG Foulin', and Oww Ming's Flagrants 

Have-Nots: Gamblor, F'N FLOPPERS, Arlington Assaulters, Rodman'sWeddingDress, Baltimore Hitsquad, Ohsnappers!!!

Keep reading to learn more about the interesting trends and tiers emerging in the National Foul Association. 

There's one more thing I want to mention in the intro before we get to our regularly scheduled post. That thing is Yahoo adding Injured List Plus (IL+) to leagues. IL+ is a new type of injured list that allows for Foul Club GMs to to place anyone with "INJ", "OFS", "O", or "GTD" statuses on this list. The regular IL only allows for players with "INJ" tag to be placed on it. So for instance, if you employ Andre Drummond as a fouler who is being held out until he is traded and thus has the "O" status you could place him on the IL+ list.

Now, for NFA purposes, Yahoo will let us add an IL+ spot mid-season but once we add it we can't remove it mid-season. This is the one thing we can do to roster spots post-draft. So let me know in the comments below if you want to add one mid-season or not. I think going forward I'll replace our IL spots with IL+ or have one IL and 1 IL+ or something. We did add an extra IL spot this year for COVID so we may go back to just one but perhaps IL+ going forward. Also comment on that I suppose.

Now, let's get to this week's post now. 

Stat Corrections:

- There were no stat corrections this week

 

Transactions:

- Arlington Assaulters added Jamal Murray and dropped Evan Fournier on February 19th

- Pgastan FC dropped Josh Hart on February 20th

 

Standings as of February 22nd, 2021

 

1. Pgastan FC - 4445 (+445) 

2. GG Foulin' -  4210 (+630) 

3. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 3930 (+330)   

4. Gamblor - 3310 (+395)

5. F'N FLOPPERS - 3305 (+320) 

6. Arlington Assaulters - 3180 (+305) 

7. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 3150 (+435)

8. Baltimore Hitsquad - 3030 (+155) 

9. Ohsnappers!!! - 1925 (+205)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

 

Ohsnappers!!! had a poor week of 205 points and has yet to break 2000 points as he finds himself way behind in last place. Baltimore Hitsquad had a horrible week of 155 points and falls from tied in 6th to 8th place. Rodman'sWeddingDress had a great week of 435 points and moves up to 7th place from 8th place. Arlington Assaulters had an average week of 305 points and moves into sole possession of 6th place after being tied there last week. F'N FLOPPERS had an average week of 320 points and falls to 5th place from 4th.

Gamblor had an average week of 395 points and moves up to 4th place from 5th. Oww Ming's Flagrants had an average week of 330 points and falls to 3rd place from 2nd. GG Foulin' had an amazing week of 630 points and moves up to 2nd place from 3rd. Finally, Pgastan FC had a great week of 445 points and stays in 1st place though GG Foulin' is closing the gap.

Points Graph:

 

Tier 4: Ohsnappers!!!

Tier 3: Baltimore Hitsquad, Rodman'sWeddingDress, Arlington Assaulters, F'N FLOPPERS, Gamblor

Tier 2: Oww Ming's Flagrants,

Tier 1: GG Foulin', Pgastan FC

So those are the tiers based on the graph alone, but if we also base it off the standings then we get something like this:

Tier 3: Ohsnappers!!!

Tier 2C: Baltimore Hitsquad

Tier 2B: Rodman'sWeddingDress, Arlington Assaulters

Tier 2A: F'N FLOPPERS, Gamblor

Tier 1C: Oww Ming's Flagrants,

Tier 1B: GG Foulin'

Tier 1A: Pgastan FC

 

Obviously it's a little subjective but let me explain my reasoning. Ohsnappers!!! is clearly in the last tier. Baltimore Hitsquad is now more than 100 points behind 7th but Rodman and AA are virtually tied so they are in 3B. The same goes for F'N FLOPPERS and Gamblor. Oww Ming's Flagrants is now further behind GG Foulin' than GG Foulin' is behind PFC so that's why those tiers changed.

 

Now as for the opening of this blog post where I state that only the top 3 Foul Clubs are above league average score of 3387 and looking at the graph this morning I decided to just have 3 tiers with sub-tiers. On the graph it really does look like 3 tiers even though 1st, 2nd, and 3rd have some room in between them as opposed to the jumbled mess that is tier 2. It's pretty interesting that for the last 4 weeks (and most of the season) Oww Ming and GG have been virtually tied, which the graph clearly demonstrates.You can clearly see the league average seems to be some resistance (to borrow a stock market phrase) for the bottom 6 clubs.Will any of these teams break through that resistance into new highs? Tune in next week to find out!

 

Well that's it for now.

 

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

 

FM

 

Week 8 Roundup: 2nd Month Analysis Blowout!

We are now 2 months into the season so that means it's time for another monthly analysis post! This one will be a little longer than usual as Yahoo! finally got their act together and made a bunch of stat corrections. Let's get right into it!

 

Stat Corrections: 

- James Harden was given a techy retroactive to January 4th. GG Foulin' did not have him active that week so he does not gain 40 points.

- DeMarcus Cousins was given 2 techies retroactive to January 4th. Baltimore Hitsquad did not have him active that week so he does not gain 80 points.

- DeMarcus Cousins was given an ejection retroactive to January 4th. Baltimore Hitsquad did not have him active that week so he does not gain 100 points.

- Luka Doncic was given a techy retroactive to January 4th. Arlington Assaulters had him active that week so he gains 40 points. 

- Draymond Green lost a techy retroactive to January 21st. GG Foulin' had him active that week so he loses 40 points.

- Dwight Howard had a techy given to him retroactive to January 25th. Pgastan FC had him active that week so he gains 40 points.

- Josh Jackson had a flagrant given to him retroactive to January 25th. Pgastan had him active that week so he gains 80 points.

- Josh Jackson had an ejection given to him retroactive to January 25th. Pgastan FC had him active that week so he gains 100 points.

- Marvin Bagley had 2 techies given to him retroactive to February 1st. Oww Ming's Flagrants had him active that week so he gains 80 points.

- Marvin Bagley had an ejection given to him retroactive to February 1st. Oww Ming's Flagrants had him active that week so he gains 100 points. 

Whew, that's a lot of stat corrections including the Marvin Bagley DTE miss that no Foul Club manager seemed to catch. So let's recap.

GG Foulin' - Loses 40 points

Arlington Assaulters - Gains 40 points

Pgastan FC - Gains 220 points

Oww Ming's Flagrants - Gains 180 points. 

Baltimore Hitsquad - No change in points but that Bench DTEs gotta hurt

Transactions:

- GG Foulin' dropped Naz Reid on February 13th

- Gamblor added Hamidou Diallo and dropped Kevin Durant on February 14th

- Pgastan FC added Cam Reddish and dropped Cole Anthony on February 14th

Standings as of February 15th, 2021

 

1. Pgastan FC - 4000 (+495) 

2. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 3600 (+560)  

3. GG Foulin' -  3580 (+560) 

4. F'N FLOPPERS - 2985 (+265) 

5. Gamblor - 2915 (+295)

6. Arlington Assaulters - 2875 (+420)

6. Baltimore Hitsquad - 2875 (+380) 

8. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 2715 (+355)

9. Ohsnappers!!! - 1720 (+185)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

 

Ohsnappers!!! continues occupying the basement with a horrible week of 185 points. Rodman'sWeddingDress had an average week of 355 points and stays in 8th place. Baltimore Hitsquad had an average week of 380 points and moves from sole possession of 6th place to a tie. Arlington Assaulters had a great week of 420 points and moves from 7th place to a tie in 6th place. Gamblor had a poor week of 295 points and stays in 5th place.

F'N FLOPPERS had a poor week of 265 points and stays in 4th place. GG Foulin' had an excellent week of 560 points and stays in 3rd place. He actually scored 600 points this past week but lost the 40 points in stat corrections mentioned above. Oww Ming's Flagrants had an excellent week of 560 points and stays in 2nd place. Of course, take away the 180 points from stat corrections and he only scored 380. Finally, Pgastan FC had a great week of 495 points and stays atop the standings. Take away his 220 points from stat corrections and he only scored 275 points, most likely his worst week of the season. He also did not have a single performance foul this past week. 

Average Points Per Game

 

1. Pgastan FC (174 Games) - 22.99

2. Oww Ming's Flagrants (170 Games) -21.18

3. GG Foulin' (183 Games) -19.56

4. F'N FLOPPERS (154 Game) -19.38

5. Gamblor (161 Games) - 18.11 

6. Arlington Assaulters (168 Games) -17.11

6. Baltimore Hitsquad (170 Games) - 16.91

8. Rodman'sWeddingDress (177 Games) - 15.34

9. Ohsnappers!!! (159 Games) -10.82

League Average (168 Games) - 17.93

So this is pretty interesting, in that by this metric no team is over performing or under performing. The top 5 teams (Gamblor and above) are all getting more average points per game than the league average. 

Projected Final Standings:
 
Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression)  

1. Pgastan FC - 10,000 (10,015)

2. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 9,000 (8,840)

3. GG Foulin' - 8,950 (8,780)

4. F'N FLOPPERS - 7,460 (7,640)

5. Gamblor - 7,285 (7,075)  

6. Arlington Assaulters - 7,185 (7,100)

6. Baltimore Hitsquad - 7,185 (6,955)

8. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 6,785 (6,560)

9. Ohsnappers!!! - 4,300 (4,365)

 

As with the points per game metric above, it looks like no team is over performing or under performing but there are some interesting things. Let's take a look at the linear regression, the numbers in the parentheses as those are more accurate. Ohsnappers!!! projected final score actually remains unchanged at 4,365. It looks like Baltimore Hitsquad is projected to finish just below Arlington Assaulters for 7th place despite being tied for 6th as of this writing. Oww Ming's Flagrants looks to edge out GG Foulin' for 2nd place based on linear regression. Finally, Pgastan FC is still projected to be the only team to finish above 10,000 points, but just barely. 

Points Graph: 

 

Tier 4: Ohsnapppers!!!

Tier 3: Rodman'sWeddingDress, Baltimore Hitsquad, Arlington Assaulters, Gamblor, F'N FLOPPERS

Tier 2: GG Foulin', Oww Ming's Flagrants

Tier 1: Pgastan FC

So the big change is the large grouping in tier 3. I thought about a few things such as another tier or a tier 3B and tier 3A but in the end I decided to just group them all in one tier as teams 4th through 8th are only separated by 270 points. The graph really shows the jumble of teams in the middle of the league. Rodman'sWeddingDress has a little more of a gap to the person in front as does F'N FLOPPERS to the person behind than the rest of 5th, 6th, and 7th but still I think these tiers are appropriate. 

Well, that's it for now.

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM