Week 20 Roundup: 5th Month Analysis Blowout!

With just over 5 weeks left (week 26 is only 3 days) this could be a telling analysis post. In fact, we have have now played 78.6% of the NFA season. As I defined at the end of last week's post, we really have 4 tiers (with tier 2 having it's own sub-tiers). So let's see how those pan out now that we are essentially in the home stretch of the season!

Stat Corrections:
- Pascal Siakam had a personal foul given to him retroactive to February 28th. Gamblor had him active that week so he gains 5 points
- OG Anunoby had a personal foul taken away from him retroactive to February 28th. Oww Ming's Flagrants did not have him active that week so he does not lose 5 points
- OG Anunoby had a personal foul given to him retroactive to March 5th. Oww Ming's Flagrants did not have him active that week so he does not gain 5 points

Summary of stat corrections: Gamblor gains 5 points, that is all

Transactions:
- Pgastan FC added Josh Jackson and dropped Kris Dunn on March 4th
- Oww Ming's Flagrants added Christian Wood on March 5th
- Pgastan FC added Jordan McRae and dropped Evan Fournier on March 6th

Standings as of March 9th, 2020:

1. GG Foulin' - 10410  (+485)
2. Pgastan FC - 10325 (+525)
3. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 8885 (+495)
4. Gamblor - 8715 (+520)
5. Arlington Assaulters - 8455 (+550)
6. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 8275 (+375)
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 7935 (+460)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad -  6595 (+345)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 4805 (+320)

<= 195 Points: Horrible week
200-295 Points : Poor week
300-395 Points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 Points: Amazing week

F'N FLOPPERS had an average week of 320 points and remains well in last place still having not cracked 5,000 points. Baltimore Hitsquad had an average week of 345 points and remains in 8th place still not at the 7,000 point mark. Ohsnappers!!! had a great week of 460 points and stays in 7th place and is just 65 points from 8,000 points. Rodman'sWeddingDress had an average week of 375 points and stays in 6th place. Arlington Assaulters had an excellent week of 550 points and stays in 5th place.

Gamblor had an excellent week of 520 points and stays in 4th place. Oww Ming's Flagrants had a great week of 495 points and remains in 3rd place. Pgastan FC had an excellent week of 525 points and remains in 2nd place. GG Foulin' had a great week of 485 points and stays atop the standings. There was no movement this week in the standings


Average Points Per Game:
1. GG Foulin' (426 Games) - 24.44
2. Pgastan FC (434 Games) - 23.79
3. Oww Ming's Flagrants (422 Games) - 21.05
4. Gamblor (400 Games) - 21.79
5. Arlington Assaulters (396 Games) - 21.35
6. Rodman'sWeddingDress (387 Games) - 21.38
7. Ohsnappers!!! (430 Games) - 18.45
8. Baltimore Hitsquad (385 Games) - 17.13
9. F'N FLOPPERS (405 Games) - 11.86

League Average (409 Games) - 20.14








A few interesting things to note from this metric:
1. Rodman'sWeddingDress is slightly ahead of Arlington Assaulters in points per game so he should theoretically finish ahead of him in 5th.
2. Gamblor has been averaging 0.74 points per game more than Oww Ming's Flagrants so we should expect him to finish 3rd in the end.

Let's see what the projected final standings show us and if they differ from the points per game metric






Projected Final Standings:
 
Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression)  

1. GG Foulin' - 13,235  (14,060)
2. Pgastan FC - 13,130 (13,640)
3. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 11,295 (11,630)
4. Gamblor - 11,080 (11,310)
5. Arlington Assaulters - 10,750 (10,760)
6. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 10,520 (11,145)
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 10,090 (10,300)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad -  8,385 (8,670)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 6,110 (6,065)


Now, this is interesting. I am mainly looking at the linear regression method now as the tradinational method doesn't really tell us much anymore in my opinion. Not much to talk about from the bottom as F'N FLOPPERS continues his historically bad season and Baltimore Hitsquad is comfortably in 8th place. Ohsnappers!!! is also projected to finish in 7th which should be no surprise. Rodman'sWeddingDress is the first thing to talk about as he is projected to finish in 5th place, 385 points ahead Arlington Assaulters.

The second thing of note from the linear regression method is that both Pgastan FC and GG Foulin' are on pace to break Rodman'sWeddingDress all time high score. Also, F'N FLOPPERS is still well on pace to break the all-time low.

Points Graph:
 
Tier 4: F'N FLOPPERS
Tier 3: Baltimore Hitsquad
Tier 2C: Ohsnappers!!!
Tier 2B: Arlington Assaulters, Rodman'sWeddingDress
Tier 2A: Oww Ming's Flagrants and Gamblor
Tier 1: GG Foulin' and Pgastan FC

Tiers remain the same as last week and I think they are pretty well established as of now. I am really digging the sub-tiers I created for tier 2 to really show more detail as I think it's relative.

Well that's it for now.

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM