Stat Corrections:
- There were no stat corrections this week
Transactions:
- GG Foulin' added Marquese Chriss and dropped D'Angelo Russell on February 6th
- Arlington Assaulters added Nemanja Bjelica and dropped Ricky Rubio on February 9th
My sources tell me that Pgastan FC was about to pick up Chriss as early as the night of the 5th and considered a few times on the 6th before GG Foulin' ended up picking him up. Apparently, he didn't really have a fouler to drop especially since he just picked up Josh Jackson and Mortiz Wagner was coming back from injury and wanted to see how that panned out. So, time will tell if either of these moves will make a difference in the season. Of course neither player could be the prolific fouler they once were and they could both be on the waiver wire in a few weeks.
Standings as of February 10th, 2020:
1. GG Foulin' - 8865 (+380)
2. Pgastan FC - 8555 (+355)
3. Gamblor - 7390 (+415)
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 7260 (+490)
5. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 7090 (+505)
6. Arlington Assaulters - 6895 (+355)
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 6550 (+295)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad - 5395 (+305)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 3855 (+275)
<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week
F'N FLOPPERS had a poor week of 275 points and remains in last place. Baltimore Hitsquad had an average week of 305 points and stays in 8th place. Ohsnappers!!! had a poor week of 295 points and stays in 7th place. Arlington Assautlers had an average week of 335 points and remains in 6th place. Rodman'sWeddingDress had an excellent week of 505 points but stays in 5th place.
Oww Ming's Flagrants had a great week of 490 points and stays in 4th place. Gamblor had a great week of 415 points and stays in 3rd place. Pgastan FC had an average week of 355 points and remains in 2nd place. Finally, GG Foulin' had an average week of 380 points and stays in 1st place.
Average Points Per Game:
1. GG Foulin' (356 Games) - 24.90
2. Pgastan FC (360 Games) - 23.76
3. Gamblor (332 Games) - 22.26
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants (353 Games) - 20.57
5. Rodman'sWeddingDress (325 Games) - 21.82
6. Arlington Assaulters (327 Games) - 21.09
7. Ohsnappers!!! (355 Games) - 18.45
8. Baltimore Hitsquad (317 Games) - 17.02
9. F'N FLOPPERS (338 Games) - 11.41
League Average (340 Games) - 20.14
I have to say, I am beginning to like this metric a lot. It correctly predicted Gamblor's rise up the standings where he was as low as 6th place and this actually had him pegged for 4th place in both weeks 4 and 8. It then had him pegged for 3rd place while he was in 4th place during the week 12 analysis post. The only team "out of position" in this edition is Rodman'sWeddingDress who should be in 4th place but as you can see he has played 28 less games than Oww Ming's Flagrants so if he can make some of those up, he could conceivably make it back to 4th place.
As for the teams at the top, Pgastan FC and GG Foulin' have come back to the pack in terms of points per game but still have considerable leads on the rest of the league. Both teams have been hit by injuries the last few weeks and it appears to be hurting their production. Only time will tell if another team can catch up with them but they have been clearly the 2 best teams in the league this season.
Projected Final Standings:
Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression)
1. GG Foulin' - 14,090 (14,750)
2. Pgastan FC - 13,595 (13,955)
3. Gamblor - 11,745 (11,550)
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 11,540 (11,980)
5. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 11,270 (11.630)
6. Arlington Assaulters - 10,960 (10,870)
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 10,410 (10,435)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad - 8,575 (8,670)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 6,125 (6,120)
F'N FLOPPERS is still on pace to destroy the all-time low for a single season. In fact, looking back at the other 3 analysis posts F'N FLOPPERS has been projected to finish around 6,100 points so that's looking to be a good bet for his final points. Baltimore Hitsquad has continue his tumble down the projected standings and is the only other team to be projected under the 10,000 points mark. That means, we still have 7 teams projected to finish over 10,000 points which remains unchanged from Week 12. For the most part the differences between traditional method and linear regression are pretty close. As mentioned above, Pgastan FC and GG Foulin' are coming back to the pack and as of this week, both are still projected to finish above Rodman'sWeddingDress all-time high score of 13,470 but Pgastan FC isn't projected to best that by much. The projected scores for the top 2 foul clubs compared to week 12 haven't really changed much so perhaps these scores will be relatively close to the final standings.
Points Graph:
Tier 6: F'N FLOPPERS
Tier 5: Baltimore Hitsquad
Tier 4: Ohsnappers!!!
Tier 3: Arlington Assaulters and Rodman'sWeddingDress
Tier 2: Oww Ming's Flagrants and Gamblor
Tier 1: Pgastan FC and GG Foulin'
I'm going to keep the tiers the same as last week but I think there's a case to be made for only 4 tiers:
Tier 4: F'N FLOPPERS
Tier 3: Baltimore Hitsquad
Tier 2: Ohsnappers!!!, Arlington Assautlers, Rodman'sWeddingDress, Oww Ming's Flagrants, and Gamblor
Tier 1: Pgastan FC, and GG Foulin'
It's kind of a tough/judgement call as if you break it down (starting at 7th place) the teams are all kind of close to the team in front of them and/or behind them. However, there's still a pretty big gap between 7th and 3rd, though it's kind of hard to find exact breaks in where the tiers should be. Rodman'sWeddingDress could be in the tier above with Oww Ming and Gamblor, while Ohsnappers!!! and Arlington could be in a tier together. Basically, what I'm trying to say is that the teams in 3rd through 7th are still kind of close to each other.
Well that's it for now
Keep Foulin' Y'all!
FM
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