Monday, January 13, 2020

Week 12 Roundup: 3rd Month Analysis Blowout!

It's late and don't really see the need for an intro here given this is an analysis post so let's get right to it.

Stat Corrections:
- There were no stat corrections this week


Transactions:
- Oww Ming's Flagrants added Fred VanVleet and dropped Jabari Parker on January 6th
- Oww Ming's Flagrants added Deandre Ayton and dropped Fred VanVleet on January 9th
- Pgastan FC added Sekou Doumbouya and dropped Evan Fournier on January 11th

Standings as of January 13th, 2020:

1. GG Foulin' - 6800  (+360)
2. Pgastan FC - 6390 (+435)
3. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 5870 (+405)
4. Gamblor - 5600 (+515)
5. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 5575 (+405)
6. Ohsnappers!!! - 5065 (+725)
7. Arlington Assaulters - 5030 (+310)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad -  4245 (+300)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 2855 (+280)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

Starting from the bottom, F'N FLOPPERS remains there after a poor week of 280 points. He is a long way behind 8th place, Baltimore Hitsquad who had an average week of 300 points. He is also along way behind the next foul club, Arlington Assaulters, who also had an average week. He scored 310 points but actually falls to 7th place. Ohsnappers!!! had an amazing week of 725 points and moves up one spot to 6th.

Rodman'sWeddingDress had a great week of 405 points but falls to 5th place because Gamblor had an excellent week of 515 points and moves up to 4th. Oww Ming's Flagrants had a great week of 405 points and remains in 3rd place. Pgastan FC had a great week of 435 points and remains in 2nd place. Finally, GG Foulin' had an average week of 360 points but stays in 1st place.

Average Points Per Game:
1. GG Foulin'  (266 Games) - 25.56
2. Pgastan FC  (265 Games) - 24.11
3. Oww Ming's Flagrants (262 Games) - 22.40
4. Gamblor (244 Games) - 22.95
5. Rodman'sWeddingDress (255 Games) - 21.86
6. Ohsnappers!!! (265 Games) - 19.11
7. Arlington Assaulters (247 Games) - 20.36
8. Baltimore Hitsquad (249 Games) -  17.05
9. F'N FLOPPERS (252 Games)- 11.13

League Average (256 Games) - 20.53

There's been some shakeup in the standings since the last analysis blowout post 4 weeks ago. So the average points per game is not entirely in descending order as one would expect. The first team out of order is Ohsnappers!!! though that is likely because of him putting up 725 points this week. The second team out of position is Gamblor who should be in 3rd place now according to his average points per game. If you remember from the past 2 analysis posts, Gamblor has consistently been out of place according to this metric but has started to climb the standings finally. He is still around 20 games behind the teams ahead of him. Actually, as of week 8 he was basically 20 games behind every other foul club and he has closed that gap on other foul clubs so perhaps that explains his rise up the standings.

Projected Final Standings:
 
Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression)  

1. GG Foulin' -   14,410 (15,120)
2. Pgastan FC - 13,540 (14,040)
3. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 12,440 (12,395)
4. Gamblor - 11,865 (11,245)
5. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 11,815 (12,180)
6. Ohsnappers!!! - 10,730 (+10,265)
7. Arlington Assaulters - 10,660 (10,890)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad -  8,995 (9,235)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 6,050 (6,120)

Some things that remain the same from the last post are that F'N FLOPPERS is still on pace to break the record low according to both metrics. Also, Pgastan FC nd GG Foulin' are projected, by both metrics, to break the all-time high still, though Pgastan FC is just barely on ahead of the pace using the traditional method. It is interesting to note that the biggest discrepancies between the two methods are at the top of the standings. Oww Ming's Flagrants and Gamblor are projected with more points from the traditional method as is Ohsnappers!!!. All other foul clubs their higher projection is from linear regression. We still have 7 teams projected to finish over 10,000 points.

Points Graph:


Tier 5: F'N FLOPPERS
Tier 4: Baltimore Hitsquad
Tier 3: Arlington Assaulters and Ohsnappers!!!
Tier 2: Rodman'sWeddingDress, Gamblor, and Oww Ming's Flagrants
Tier 1: Pgastan FC and GG Foulin'

The easy tiers first are the bottom 2 where F'N FLOPPERS and Baltimore Hitsquad are clearly deserving of those positions. Ohsnappers!!! and Arlington Assaulters are still in a tier together, in fact are basically neck and neck in points so that's obvious. Rodman'sWeddingDress, Gamblor, and Oww Ming's Flagrants are in a tier together as they continue to duel it out for 3rd place. Finally Pgastan FC closed the gap enough on GG Foulin' to join him in tier 1.

 
Well that's it for now

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM

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