Week 10 Roundup: A Decade of Reflection Edition

I had met with a handful of NFA GMs last week over the holidays and one conversation gave me an idea for a post but I am going to hold off on that until I come to a week where I don't have an idea. The reason I am holding off is because this will be the last post of 2019, the last post of the 2010s. Now, I guess technically some people are saying the decade ends after 2020 (as there was no year 0). While they may be right, I don't care. Because in a little over 24 hours there will be 2 arbitrary numbers changing a the stroke of midnight instead of just 1.

So, first some thoughts on the past decade of NFA action. The league started in the 2009-10 season making this 10 years of NFA action and we are currently in the 11th season. There was a bit of an identity crisis in the beginning as the league was simply called "Foul Nation" that first year, then the following year (2010-2011) it was the "School of Hard Knocks" before finally becoming the "National Foul Association" in 2011-2012. The league started with only 6 Foul Clubs then expanded and contracted a few times before finally reaching 9 teams (though GG Foulin' took a 1-year hiatus after his title).

So what I have decided to do for this post is to look at the cumulative points per each season among all foul clubs and average points per club as well. This way we can see if Foul Clubs are getting better at scouting as the years go on. I am going to round all scores to the nearest personal foul (i.e. 5 points)

2009-2010 (6 teams): 
Total Points - 59,160
Avg Points Per Team - 9,860

2010-2011 (8 Teams):
Total Points - 76,605
Avg Points Per Team - 9,575

2011-2012 (7 Teams. 66 Game season due to Lockout):
Total Points - 45,765
Avg Points Per Team - 6,540
Expanded Total Points - 56,859
Expanded Avg Points Per Team - 8,120

2012-2013 (7 Teams):
Total Points - 70,270
Avg Points Per Team - 10,040

2013-2014 (8 Teams):
Total Points - 77,895
Avg Points Per Team - 9,735

2014-2015 (8 Teams): 
Total Points - 78,385
Avg Points Per Team -  9,800

2015-2016 (8 Teams):
Total Points - 74,665
Avg Points Per Team - 9,335

2016-2017 (9 Teams):
Total Points - 86,715
Avg Points Per Team - 9,635

2017-2018 (8 Teams):
Total Points - 77,605
Avg Points Per Team -  9,700

2018-2019 (9 Teams):
Total Points - 92,435
Avg Points Per Team - 10,270

Projected 2019-2020 (9 Teams):
Total Points - 91,820
Avg Points Per Team - 10,202

Well this is interesting, until last season the highest average points per team was way back in 2012-2013. In fact, until last season that was the only season where the average points per team was over 10,000. You can see that this year is on pace to be the third to average over 10,000 points. It really depends on how attentive NFA GMs are each season. Though, I suppose some years could have better foulers than others.

Now to the regularly scheduled post.

Stat Corrections:
- There were no stat corrections this week

Transactions:
- Oww Ming's Flagrants added Isaiah Thomas and dropped Tristan Thompson on December 27th 

Standings as of December 30th, 2019:

1. GG Foulin' - 5860  (+375)
2. Pgastan FC - 5390 (+375)
3. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 4930 (+345)
4. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 4645 (+260)
5. Gamblor - 4490 (+635)
6. Arlington Assaulters - 4380 (+430)
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 3905 (+380)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad -  3630 (+460)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 2360 (+220)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

F'N FLOPPERS had a poor week of 220 points and remains in last place. Baltimore Hitsquad had a great week of 460 points but remains in 8th place. Ohsnappers!!! had an average week of 380 points and stays in 7th place. Arlington Assaulters had a great week of 430 points but falls to 6th place because Gamblor had an amazing week of 635 points who now sits in 5th place.

Rodman'sWeddingDress had a poor week of 260 points but stays in 4th place. Oww Ming's Flagrants had an average week of 345 points and stays in 3rd place. Pgastan FC had an average week of 375 points an remains in 2nd place. Finally, GG Foulin' also had an average week of 375 points and stays in 1st place.

Points Graph:
 
Tier 5: F'N FLOPPERS
Tier 4: Baltimore Hitsquad and Ohsnappers!!!
Tier 3: Arlington Assautlers, Gamblor, and Rodman'sWeddingDress
Tier 2: Oww Ming's Flagrants
Tier 1: Pgastan FC and GG Foulin'

Some thoughts on the tiers. I could have placed Rodman'sWeddingDress in Tier 2 with Oww Ming's Flagrants but he is closer to Gamblor than Oww Ming's. Also, Pgastan FC is in danger of falling a tier below GG Foulin' if his foulers don't pick it up soon. I don't have a scientific method for defining tiers but maybe I should develop one. I usually use like 300-400 points between teams but it's kind of arbitrary now.

Well that's it for now

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM 

Week 9 Roundup: All I want for Xmas is a DTE Edition

'Tis the season for fouling. Isn't that what any NFA GM wants for Xmas? A double techy ejection. Or maybe someone can foul for the cycle soon or a double flagrant ejection which is really rare.

This is the post I like to look ahead of and see how many foulers each foul club has going on Xmas and the main reason why I am making this post so late.

1. GG Foulin' - 4 Foulers
2. Pgastan FC - 3 Foulers
3. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 1 Fouler
4. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 1 Fouler
5. Arlington Assaulters - 3 Foulers
6. Gamblor - 3 Foulers
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 2 Foulers
8. Baltimore Hitsquad -  4 Foulers
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 3 Foulers

Looks like everyone has at least 1 fouler going on Xmas so if you need a break form Xmas activities go find a TV and watch some quality fouling. 

Stat Corrections:
- There were no stat corrections this week

Transactions
- Ohsnappers!!! added Willie Cauley Stien and dropped Blake Griffin on December 16th
- GG Foulin' added Deandre Ayton and dropped CJ McCollum on December 17th
- Arlington Assaulters added CJ McCollum and dropped Zach LaVine on December 18th
- Pgastan FC added Jaxson Hayes on December 21st
- F'N FLOPPERS added Lou Williams and dropped Ryan Arcidiacano on December 21st
- F'N FLOPPERS added Kevin Porter Jr. and dropped Deandre Bembry on December 21st

Standings as of December 23rd, 2019:

1. GG Foulin' - 5485  (+525)
2. Pgastan FC - 5015 (+475)
3. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 4585 (+880)
4. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 4385 (+505)
5. Arlington Assaulters - 3950 (+485)
6. Gamblor - 3855 (+475)
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 3525 (+270)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad -  3170 (+235)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 2140 (+170)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

F'N FLOPPERS finally joins the 2000 point club with a horrible week of 170. Baltimore Hitsquad joins the 3000 point club with a poor week of 235 points. Ohsnappers!!! also had a poor week, scoring 270 points and  stays in 7th place.Gamblor had a great week of 475 points and stays in 6th place. Arlington Assaulters had a great week of 485 points and remains in 5th place.

Rodman'sWeddingDress had an excellent week of 505 points and actually falls to 4th place. That's because Oww Ming's Flagrants had a week for the ages scoring 880 points and moves up to 3rd place. Let's take a closer look at his scoring for the week.

Player Name - Points (Personal Fouls-Foul Outs-Techies-Ejections-Flagrants)

Trae Young - 20 Points (4-0-0-0-0)
Patrick Beverley - 285 Points (9-1-2-1-0)
Dillon Brooks - 60 Points (12-0-0-0-0)
Bam Adebayo - 125 Points (9-0-0-0-1)
Mitchell Robinson - 320 Points (16-2-1-0-1)
Jabari Parker - 30 Points (6-0-0-0-0)
Dennis Schroder - 40 Points (8-0-0-0-0)

You can see most of it came from Patrick Beverley and Mitchell Robinson (68.75% to be exact). If you add in the 125 points from Bam those 3 players accounted for 82.95% of Oww Ming's Points this week.

What's even more impressive is that 300 of Mitchell Robinson's 320 points came from back to back games right after a report surfaced that he was trying to foul less so he could avoid doing sprints in practice. I guess he wants to get in shape for the New Year.

Finally, rounding out the top 2 positions this week are Pgastan FC who a great week of 475 points but stays in second place and GG Foulin' who had an excellent week of 525 points and remains atop the standings. They both crack the 5000 point mark as well. They are also still on pace to smash Rodman'sWeddingDress' all-time NFA record.

Points Graph:
 
The tiers are really starting to shape up right now.
Tier 5: F'N FLOPPERS
Tier 4: Baltimore Hitsquad
Tier 3: Ohsnappers!!!, Gamblor, and Arlington Assaulters
Tier 2: Rodman'sWeddingDress and Oww Ming's Flagrants
Tier 1: Pgastan FC and GG Foulin'

There is some subjectivity on my part in this tiers as Ohsnappers!! could be in a tier by himself as could Pgastan FC and GG Foulin' but those teams are around 400 back of the team in front of them. There are 2 duels really still close together, the duel for 5th and the duel for 3rd.

Well that's it for now.

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM

Week 8 Roundup: 2nd Month Analysis Blowout!

Well, pretty big post for today as it is our 8 week analysis blowout so I won't write much of an introduction. I am planning on doing a similar format to the first analysis blowout. I am going to add a linear regression model to the projected points section along with the back of the envelope projections I have been doing. I have also added a league average rating (first debuted in last week's points graph) to a few other things as well.

So, without further ado, let's get to it!


Stat Corrections:
- There were no stat corrections this week

Transactions:
- GG Foulin' added D'Angelo Russell on December 15th
- Pgastan FC added Evan Fournier and dropped DeAndre Jordan on December 15th
- Pgastan FC added Hassan Whiteside and dropped Jaxson Hayes on December 15th
- Rodman'sWeddingDress added Dario Saric and dropped Dewayne Dedmon on December 15th

Pgastan FC has finally cut ties with DeAndre Jordan. The player he picked instead of Wendell Carter Jr. in the 4th round. Had he picked WCJ he would most likely be running away with the league. 

Standings as of December 16th, 2019:

1. GG Foulin' - 4960  (+740)
2. Pgastan FC - 4540 (+415)
3. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 3880 (+445)
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 3705 (+330)
5. Arlington Assaulters - 3465 (+355)
6. Gamblor - 3380 (+515)
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 3255 (+330)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad -  2935 (+295)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 1970 (+215)

<= 195 points: Horrible week
200-295 points: Poor week
300-395 points: Average week
400-495 Points: Great Week
500-595 Points: Excellent Week
>=600 points: Amazing week

League Average for points as of Week 8 is 3565 and average score of 410 points.

F'N FLOPPERS is still in last place and has yet to crack the 2000 point mark. Baltimore Hitsquad stays in 8th place after only putting up 295 points and is just shy of the 3000 point plateau. Ohsnappers!!! had an average week of 330 points and falls to 7th place. Gamblor had an excellent week of 515 points and makes the jump to 6th place. Arlington Assaulters had an average week of 355 points and stays in 5th place.

Oww Ming's Flagrants had an average week of 330 points and stays in 4th place. Rodman'sWeddingDress put up 445 points and stays in 3rd place. Pgastan FC had a great week of 415 points but remains in 2nd place. Finally, GG Foulin' had an amazing week of 740 points and extends his league lead even further.

Average Points Per Game:
1. GG Foulin'  (178 Games) - 27.87
2. Pgastan FC  (181 Games) - 25.08
3. Rodman'sWeddingDress (168 Games) - 23.10
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants (177 Games) - 20.93
5. Arlington Assaulters (166 Games) - 20.87
6. Gamblor (160 Games) - 21.13
7. Ohsnappers!!! (178 Games) - 18.29
8. Baltimore Hitsquad (168 Games) -  17.47
9. F'N FLOPPERS (169 Games)- 11.66

League Average (172 Games) - 20.71

If you remember the last post, Gamblor was the only team that was really out of place in terms of this metric and he still is when compared to the standings. Again, you would think the average points per game would be in descending order from first to last place. It generally is except that Gamblor still falls into 4th place by this metric when in reality he is only in 6th. He's still pretty far behind 4th place, 325 points to be exact, which is in fact further away from 4th then he was in week 4. Other than that this metric pretty much plays out as you expect it. So again, if Gamblor can add to his games played he could potentially move up. The tricky part is to gain those games on the other teams.

Projected Final Standings: Going to slightly alter what I did in week 4 as after consulting with Baltimore Hitsquad's analytics department, I am adding linear regression points as well. I will keep the back of the envelope calculation (traditional method) followed by linear regression in parentheses.

Team Name - Traditional Method (Linear Regression) 

1. GG Foulin' - 15,765  (15,720)
2. Pgastan FC - 14,430 (14,670)
3. Rodman'sWeddingDress - 12,330 (12,680)
4. Oww Ming's Flagrants - 11,775 (11,885)
5. Arlington Assaulters - 11,015 (10,820)
6. Gamblor - 10,745 (10,555)
7. Ohsnappers!!! - 10,345 (10,365)
8. Baltimore Hitsquad -  9,330 (9,590)
9. F'N FLOPPERS - 6,260 (6,365)

A few things of note here. First, GG Foulin' and Pgastan FC are still on pace to break Rodman'sWeddingDress' all time record of 13,470. Second, F'N Floppers is on pace to break the all-time low set by Hoopin' Sabercats at 6,670. Finally, if these projections hold, this will be the most number of teams to score in the 5-digits since the league expanded to 9 teams. Only Baltimore Hitsquad and F'N FLOPPERS are not projected to make the 10,000 point mark. The most we have had is 5 teams, set last year. We have had all but 2 teams crack the 10,000 point mark twice but that was when we only had 7 teams. This really just proves that scouting in the NFA has gotten a lot better.

Points Graph:
 
The graph let's us visualize the tiers the league so let's see what those are.

Tier 4: F'N FLOPPERS
Tier 3: Baltimore Hitsquad, Ohsnappers!!!, Gamblor, Arlington Assaulters
Tier 2: Oww Ming's Flagrants and Rodman'sWeddingDress
Tier 1: Pgastan FC and GG Foulin'

F'N FLOPPERS is clearly in a tier by himself in last a place. You could potentially argue that Tier 3 and 2 could be 1 tier but that may be because the league average line splits the difference, so I think the 2 separate tiers are appropriate. Finally, Pgastan FC and GG Foulin' are clearly in a tier by themselves though GG Foulin' could separate himself from Pgastan FC and create his own tier on top.

Well that's it for now.

Keep Foulin' Y'all!

FM